Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) the theme of “steady growth”. In 2022, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and China’s demand is weak. In order to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, the national “steady growth” policy may be introduced one after another, and relevant sectors will also take the lead. We can pay attention to infrastructure, building materials and real estate. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is momentum for valuation and repair in the affected sectors of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: airports, tourism and cinemas.
Focus on hot topics: (1) policy overweight drives the prosperity of the environmental protection sector upward. On February 16, the State Council issued the notice on carrying out the third national soil survey. The purpose of this round of general survey is to find out China’s soil types and distribution law, the current situation and change trend of soil resources. At the same time, in addition to the rising voice for soil pollution control, remediation and legislation in recent years, we believe that driven by the current round of soil survey policies, the demand for soil testing, soil remediation and other related sectors will be improved, and the prosperity of environmental protection and other related sectors may have upward momentum. The related targets include: Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) , Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) . (2) The project of “counting from the east to the west” was launched to promote the further development of digital economy. On February 17, the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments jointly issued documents indicating that the “counting from the east to the west” project was officially launched. We believe that with the comprehensive and continuous penetration of the digital economy and the positioning of its projects, the computing power of the whole society may grow rapidly, and relevant fields represented by infrastructure, IDC construction, software and cloud services may benefit. Relevant targets include: Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) , Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) . (3) The top-level pension plan is released, and the pension industry may welcome new opportunities for development. On February 21, in order to implement the national strategy to actively respond to population aging, the State Council recently issued the national plan for the development of aging undertakings and elderly care service system in the 14th five year plan. The plan has deployed nine specific tasks, including strengthening social security and comprehensive elderly care service network, expanding the coverage of inclusive elderly care services, strengthening the ability of home-based community elderly care services, and vigorously developing the silver economy. Among them, we believe that the construction of elderly care services and supporting facilities and the improvement of the whole social security system deserve special attention. The relevant targets include: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from February 14 to February 18, the top gainers are aquatic feed, soda ash, chemical raw materials, basic chemical industry and other Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing. The main reason is that due to the influence of geopolitics, the fear of rising commodity prices is rising, and relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were livestock and poultry feed, pig breeding, aquaculture, marine fishing and broiler breeding. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and the recent tightening of funds and the rise in the price of raw materials have led to significant adjustments.
From February 14 to February 18, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were home textile, lithium mine, decorative garden, photovoltaic inverter and cro; The top five declines were stock speculation software, air transportation, GDR, securities and online tourism. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are pig breeding, breeding industry, livestock and poultry feed, soda ash and feed; The top five cumulative net outflows are basic chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, chemical raw materials, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and planting.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Uncertainty about the global epidemic.
