Core conclusion
Construction of commodity inventory indicators. In our previous report, we proposed that inventory is the yardstick to measure the price of crude oil. In fact, the inventory of all goods will affect its price elasticity. This paper aims to roughly construct the inventory observation index of bulk commodities; Firstly, the global bulk commodities are divided into five categories and 16 commodities: energy, non-ferrous metals, black series, precious metals and agricultural and livestock products; Secondly, select appropriate inventory indicators for each commodity, and the number of most commodity indicators is 2 or more; Finally, calculate the inventory level and price level of various commodities.
Energy: tight natural gas inventory, loose coal and crude oil inventory. 1) Crude oil: 66.6% of the US commercial crude oil inventory in recent 20 years, and 70.0% of the OECD crude oil inventory in recent 20 years; 2) Natural gas: inventories in the United States and Europe are 21.9% and 32.4% respectively in recent 20 years; 3) Coal: the storage of power coal is 34.6% in recent 20 years, and the inventory of coking coal port and steel plant is 38.5% and 97.2% in recent 20 years.
Nonferrous Metals: the inventory of global exchanges is low, and the water level of China’s social reservoir is high. 1) Copper: the water levels of global exchanges and Chinese stocks in recent 20 years are 14.7% and 21.3% respectively; 2) Aluminum: the water levels of global exchanges and Chinese stocks in recent 20 years are 6.5% and 45.6% respectively; 3) Zinc: the water levels of global exchanges and Chinese stocks in recent 20 years are 27.9% and 86.7% respectively; 4) Lead: the water levels of global exchanges and Chinese stocks in recent 20 years were 17.3% and 82.5% respectively.
Black: the inventory is at a historically high level. 1) Iron ore: the water level of port inventory in recent 20 years is as high as 99.4%; 2) Rebar: the quantile of social inventory in recent 20 years is 90.0%.
Precious metals: except palladium, the inventory level is high. 1) Gold: 93.9% and 91.8% of ETF positions and Comex inventory in recent 20 years; 2) Silver: 95.6% and 92.7% of ETF positions and Comex inventory in recent 20 years; 3) Platinum: 90.0% quantile of ETF positions in recent 20 years; 4) Palladium: 15.3% quantile of ETF positions in recent 20 years.
Agricultural and livestock products: the global inventory is relatively high. 1) Soybean: 73.6% of the global inventory in recent 20 years; 2) Corn: 78.9% of the global inventory in recent 20 years; 3) Pork: 57.8% of global inventory in recent 20 years.
To sum up, we believe that the commodities with low inventory level are natural gas, copper and palladium, and the commodities with high inventory level are crude oil, zinc, iron ore, rebar, gold, silver, platinum, soybean, corn and pork.
Risk warning: commodity price fluctuations exceed expectations; Global inflation exceeded expectations.
