Macro categories:
Affected by the hot war between Ukraine and Russia, the global stock index has generally adjusted. At present, the core question is whether the most urgent stage of the incident has passed. At present, the answer is No. the incident still has the possibility of further fermentation: including the United States and NATO adopting more economic sanctions against Russia, including crude oil, natural gas and other fields, and even the risk of the United States and NATO sending troops to intervene in the battlefield. Based on the current news, the probability of the direct involvement of the United States and NATO in the operation is relatively low, and Russia’s purpose is not to occupy Ukraine, achieve independence in Donetsk, Lugansk and other regions, or the ultimate goal of Russia. At present, it is judged that the situation is still in low and medium intensity war. However, as the event is still uncertain, it is not recommended to intervene in the event transaction in advance.
We selected six geopolitical events with great influence in history as samples for analysis. The impact of geopolitical conflict on financial assets shows the law of first falling and then rising. In the brewing stage before the event landing (the first month), among the six samples, the US dollar index, Shanghai Composite Index and 10Y US bond interest rate have a high probability of falling, the probability of falling is 83.3%, and the probability of safe haven asset gold is 66.6%. After the official landing of the event, the risk assets rebounded and repaired. In the sample, the probability of 83.3% of the NASDAQ index and 66.6% of the Shanghai Composite Index and the US dollar index rose. The commodity sectors except gold did not show obvious laws before and after the event. We believe that the results will change according to the supply and demand structure of the place where the event occurred.
Generally speaking, the progress of real estate and infrastructure construction at the micro level is still not ideal. Our short-term strategy of reducing domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) is neutral; As the two sessions window approaches, and Tianliang social finance supports the enterprise’s profit expectation, we still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the crude oil chain is more dependent on the favorable situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of mitigation of subsequent events; In terms of precious metals, as the CPI of the United States in January hit a new high since the 1980s, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation and superimposed the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, precious metals maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Russia and Ukraine.
