One week core view
Continue to focus on the subject of reasonable valuation. This week, the pharmaceutical and biological index rose 4.85%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.77 percentage points, ranking second among all shenwanyi industries. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 13.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.40 percentage points, ranking 28th among all Shenwan industries. At present, the price earnings ratio of Pharmaceutical Biology (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) is 30.8x, which is in the 12% quantile of the historical valuation in recent five years, and the valuation is at a low level. In the uncertain macro environment outside China and the repeated stage of the global covid-19 epidemic in winter, we believe that the pharmaceutical and biological sector has a high cost performance. We suggest to continue to pay attention to the high-quality targets matching the boom track valuation and growth rate: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Yaoming biology, Kingsley biotechnology, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , konoya, Corning Jerry pharmaceutical, etc.
China has stepped up the implementation of immunization successively, paying attention to covid-19 vaccine booster injection and sea going opportunities
On February 19, 2022, the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council disclosed that with the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. After the implementation of the sequential immunization strategy, the target population over 18 years old who has completed the whole process of vaccination with inactivated vaccines of Sinopharm Zhongsheng Beijing company, Wuhan company and Beijing Kexing company, as well as the adenovirus vector vaccine of Tianjin Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) company for 6 months can choose the recombinant protein vaccine of zhifeilong Kema or the adenovirus vector vaccine of Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) for sequential immunization. In addition, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council also approved the homologous enhanced immunization of covid-19 virus inactivated vaccine of Shenzhen Kangtai company and the Institute of biology of the medical college.
The vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine in China has exceeded 3 billion doses, and it is expected that the progress of the first round of enhanced immunization will be more than half. As of February 19, 2022, a total of 3.076 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated in China, with a total number of 1.268 billion vaccinated and 1.233 billion vaccinated in the whole process. Among them, the number of people over 60 years old who received covid-19 virus vaccination reached 220 million, and 211 million completed the whole process of vaccination; Covid-19 virus vaccination coverage for the elderly over the age of 80 was 20.441 million, and 17.953 million people were vaccinated in the whole process. Since October 2021, China has started to strengthen immunization for people who have completed the whole process of vaccination for more than 6 months. As of February 7, about 460 million people in China have completed the enhanced immunization. It is estimated that the progress of the enhanced immunization is about to be more than half. According to the current vaccination rate of ~ 6 million people / day, 600 ~ 700 million people will successively strengthen the immunization demand in the next 3 ~ 4 months.
Lizuzumab v-01 released phase III data of overseas sequential enhancement. A phase III clinical trial with sequential enhancement was conducted in Pakistan and Malaysia. It is planned to inject v-01 booster needle or blank placebo 1:1 among 10722 healthy adults aged 18 and over who have completed two doses of inactivated vaccine for 3 to 6 months. At present, 10241 people have been enrolled, and a total of 110 cases have been detected. The results of the analysis at this stage showed that the annual incidence rate of V-01 sequential enhancement and two needle inactivated vaccine was 6.73% and 12.80% respectively, compared with the V-01 inactivated vaccine group and the two needle inactivated vaccine group (P=0.0012). The absolute protective power of v-01 after sequential strengthening is 61.35%, which has significant strong and excellent effect, and has met the standards of the World Health Organization (who).
In 2021, the export of covid-19 vaccine in China exceeded 100 billion yuan. We are concerned about covid-19 vaccine going to sea. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2021, the export amount of Chinese vaccines for human use (most of which are expected to be covid-19 vaccines) exceeded 110 billion yuan, including 91 billion yuan in Beijing (Sinopharm + Kexing), 4.27 billion yuan in Tianjin and Jiangsu ( Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) ), 1.27 billion yuan in Anhui (zhifeilong Kema) and 1.08 billion yuan in Guangdong ( Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) ). At present, Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) biological Ad5 CoV and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) zf2001 are promoting the WHO UL review, which is expected to further expand the overseas market.
Guoxin’s point of view: China’s epidemic spot distribution is normalized, and the sequential strengthening of immunization landing will help to further improve the group immune barrier. China’s current round of strengthening immunization is expected to be more than half, and it is expected that there will still be 600-700 million people in the next three to four months. Lizuzumab v-01, recov and other products are still promoting overseas phase III clinical trials, and it is expected to further enrich Chinese covid-19 vaccine varieties in the future. The global epidemic has eased slightly, but the data such as newly confirmed cases are still at an all-time high. There is a structural imbalance in the global supply of covid-19 vaccine. At present, China’s two covid-19 vaccines are promoting who UL certification, and it is expected to further explore overseas markets in the future. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related targets: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) bio-b, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) .
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
The overall control of the epidemic in China is stable, and some areas are sporadic. Since February 2022, 772 confirmed cases have been reported in China, involving 11 provinces and cities. Among them, the epidemic situation in Baise, Guangxi has been closed and cleared; The epidemic situation in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia is in the early stage, and there is still a rapid growth in the number of cases and the risk of community transmission and spillover; The new cases of Huludao epidemic in Liaoning Province were mainly found through centralized isolation and screening, and the risk of social transmission was basically controlled.
The global epidemic has eased. The global average daily number of new cases decreased for the fourth consecutive week, from the peak of ~ 3.5 million people / day at the end of January to ~ 2 million people / day at present, but it is still at an all-time high; The inflection point of the global average number of daily deaths began to appear, with a slight decrease from the peak of one week ago to 11000 people / day.
Vaccination continued to advance in major countries around the world. By February 19, 2022, more than 10.4 billion doses of covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, with an average daily dose of ~ 30 million / day, and the global one shot coverage reached 61.9%, including 3.08 billion doses in China, about 1.75 billion doses in India and 550 million doses in the United States respectively. In terms of the proportion of people who have completed the immunization program, the United Arab Emirates (94.1%), Portugal (91.3%), Chile (88.9%), Brazil (71.3%) and the United States (64.2%) have completed a high proportion of complete immunization.
One week market review
This week, all A-Shares rose by 1.20% (weighted average of total market value), CSI 300 rose by 1.08%, small and medium-sized board index rose by 2.56%, gem index rose by 2.93%, biomedical sector rose by 4.85% as a whole, and biomedical sector performed better than the overall market. In terms of molecular section, chemical pharmaceuticals rose by 2.52%, biological products rose by 1.98%, medical services rose by 12.59%, medical devices rose by 5.67%, pharmaceutical business rose by 0.78% and traditional Chinese medicine rose by 1.99%.
In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers are Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) (40.77%), Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (36.15%), Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) (28.58%), Shanxi C&Y Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300254) (23.93%), Beijing Wandong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(600055) (22.72%), Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) (22.68%), Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300039) (18.77%), Huatong medicine (18.51%), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (18.27%), Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (17.19%), mainly due to covid-19 drug and testing related concepts and industrial chain Factors such as the change of fixed increase shareholders of the company. The largest declines were Zhejiang Hisoar Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002099) (- 12.57%), Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) (- 10.87%), Lanhai medical (- 8.90%), Guonong Technology (- 7.90%), China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) (- 7.51%), Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) (- 5.48%), St Kangmei (- 4.73%), China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) (- 4.01%), Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) (- 3.65%) and Shanghai Raas Blood Products Co.Ltd(002252) (- 3.48%), mainly due to the correction of the large increase in the early stage and the normal fluctuation of the stock price.
This week, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.32%, and the Hong Kong stock healthcare sector rose 5.72%. The relative performance of the sector was stronger than that of the Hang Seng Index. In terms of molecular sectors, the pharmaceutical sector rose 3.44%, biotechnology rose 8.43%, medical and health care equipment rose 0.05% and medical services rose 3.56%. In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers are Kingsley Biotechnology (22.87%), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (19.76%), Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (15.39%), Sihuan medicine (14.29%), Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) bio-b (11.68%), mainly due to the smooth clinical promotion, performance forecast profit, foreign cooperation and the rebound of large decline in the early stage. The biggest declines were Weiya Biology (- 8.85%), Qiming medical-b (- 5.15%), Chunli medical (- 4.44%), Aikang medical (- 4.38%), Baiji Shenzhou (- 4.36%), mainly due to the normal fluctuation of stock price. (Note: the list of rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks only counts pharmaceutical and medical enterprises with a market value of more than HK $5 billion)
Sector valuation
Pharmaceutical and biological P / E ratio (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) is 30.79x, and the P / E ratio of all A-Shares (Shenwan A-share index) is 18.36x. In terms of sectors, chemical pharmaceuticals are 32.30x, biological products are 28.40x, medical services are 57.61x, medical devices are 22.76x, pharmaceutical commerce is 16.59x and traditional Chinese medicine is 32.72x.
