Industry perspective:
Cement prices fell slightly month on month this week, and are expected to stabilize and recover with the recovery of demand. According to the survey data of Centennial construction network, the operating rate of sample projects on February 17 was 51%, slightly higher than that of the same period last year, but the differentiation between real estate and infrastructure is obvious. Steady progress has been made in key infrastructure projects across the country, and some projects are in a hurry; The real estate project has not been comprehensively improved due to capital problems, the settlement cycle has been lengthened, and the project progress is generally slow. In addition, due to the weather, there has been rainy weather in East and South China recently, and the low temperature affects the construction. However, due to the impact of important events and meetings in North China, the construction rate of the project is only 16%. Therefore, at present, the recovery of cement demand has begun, but the speed is slow and the elasticity is limited. The shipment rate is 2.63 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year.
On February 7, the clinker along the river increased by 30 yuan, and the clinker price in the long triangle this week increased by 30 yuan / ton again. This is mainly due to the weak demand in January and the large decline in clinker price. At present, the price difference of cement clinker has reached an all-time high; The inventory of the grinding station is low during the holidays, and the downstream goods preparation is more active after the Lantern Festival; In the first quarter of this year, the peak shifting production time in many provinces was extended, and the tightening of supply helped to stabilize prices. At the same time, coal prices are still at a high level recently, and the cost of raw materials and energy jointly boost the rise of cement prices. We expect the cement price to be basically at the bottom and is expected to stabilize and recover in the future. Maintaining the previous judgment, there are band opportunities in the cement sector in the first quarter, and the opportunities in the whole year are limited.
Cement: the national price fell slightly, and the shipment rate began to rise at the bottom
This week, the average tax inclusive price of national high-standard cement was 505.51 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.17% month on month. The price drop areas are mainly Tianjin, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other local areas, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton; The price of clinker in the Yangtze River Delta has been raised by 30 yuan / ton again. This week, the national cement storage capacity ratio was 66.81%, with a month on month increase of 0.19pct and a year-on-year increase of 11.19pct. This week, the cement shipment rate was 14.60%, with a month on month increase of 10.47 PCT and a year-on-year decrease of 2.63 PCT.
Glass: the price of float glass rose sharply and the inventory fell significantly
This week, the average transaction price of national glass spot was 2303 yuan / ton, up 9.88% on a weekly basis and 11.74% on a year-on-year basis; On February 17, the average daily transaction price was 2378 yuan / ton, an increase of 213 yuan / ton compared with February 10. This week, the total inventory of national sample enterprises was 42.755 million heavy boxes, down 11.11% month on month, up 22.65% year-on-year, and the inventory days were 20.85 days.
Glass fiber: the alkali free roving market is basically stable, and the price of electronic yarn is temporarily stable after adjustment
This week, the mainstream of 2400tex winding direct yarn was 6000-6300 yuan / ton, which was basically the same month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 7.39%. This week, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn G75 is about 11000 yuan / ton, which is basically the same month on month; The price of electronic cloth remains about 4.5 yuan / meter.
Investment suggestion: capital construction and real estate are expected to improve in 2022, and the prosperity of building materials sector will continue to improve. The first is [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] that benefits from the improvement of infrastructure and real estate industry chain, and [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] that pays attention to more adjustment; New infrastructure benefit materials sector, focus on [ Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ] [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ].
Risk warning: real estate infrastructure investment is less than expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected
