Industry dynamic information
Industry Overview:
From the performance of each sub sector of transportation relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the transportation sector has been corrected as a whole this week (February 14-february 18). This week, the shipping sector fell 0.57%, the aviation and airport sectors fell 2.99% and 2.19% respectively, the express sector fell 2.23%, and other sectors were relatively stable.
Shipping: the spot freight rate of Dafei steamship is rising, and the port congestion is still difficult to alleviate in the short term
The spot freight rate of Dafei steamship rose to the mainstream level of the market, and the high freight rate of mainstream carriers continued to the end of February. Cmacgm announced the freezing of spot market freight rates on September 9, 2021, and the effective deadline of the announcement is February 1, 2022. CMA announced that it would adjust the freight rate on February 15. The western United States rose $1550 / large counter and the eastern United States rose $1950 / large counter. After the CMA price rise, the freight rate level is about US $8300 / large container in the West and US $9500 / large container in the East, catching up with the mainstream freight rate level in the market. The mainstream carriers have announced to postpone the freight rate to the end of February.
Due to factors such as passive empty shift and capacity transfer, the number of waiting ships outside Changluo port has decreased to 76 in the short term, and the congestion has not been significantly improved. It is expected that the contradiction between market supply and demand will not be alleviated in the short term. As of February 18, the number of waiting container ships outside Changluo port (within 40 nautical miles) rose to 6, while the number of waiting ships outside 40 nautical miles decreased to 70, down from 103 in mid January, still at a high level. The reasons are as follows: (1) in the early stage, the ports in the west of the United States were too congested, ships were seriously off duty, and passive empty shifts occurred intensively, which reduced the number of ships arriving at the west coast of the United States in January. (2) Some small and medium-sized shipping companies transferred American line ships to other routes, which reduced the total number of arriving ships, resulting in a decline in the number of waiting berths.
More than 1800 dock workers in the West US port have been infected with "Omicron", the dock operation efficiency continues to remain low, and the average waiting time of ships still needs more than 20 days, which continues to cause serious consumption of market capacity. The president of the Maritime Association (PMA) said that in the first three weeks of January, more than 1800 dockers on the West Coast tested positive for covid-19 pneumonia, exceeding 1624 confirmed cases in 2021. The surge in the number of confirmed cases has had a huge impact on the labor availability of dock workers, especially skilled dock workers driving container mobile equipment in the yard. There will be a new round of labor shortage in the west American port, and ships will work longer in berths, which will further worsen the existing ship congestion.
Risk tips: (1) the global economic recovery does not meet expectations; (2) the risk of epidemic deterioration; (3) the price war in the express industry is becoming more and more intense; (4) the oil price rebounds sharply
