Guoxin chemical's view:
1) carbon fiber is widely used in aerospace, wind power blades, sports and leisure fields because of its excellent mechanical properties and chemical stability. Carbon fiber is an inorganic fiber with carbon main chain structure, which is formed by the cracking and carbonization of organic fiber in high temperature environment, and the carbon content is higher than 90%. Carbon fiber has lower density than aluminum and higher strength than steel. It is the fiber with the highest specific strength and modulus among the mass-produced high-performance fibers. At the same time, it has a series of excellent properties that cannot be replaced by other materials, such as conductivity, heat conduction, corrosion resistance and so on. Carbon fiber is widely used in aerospace, wind power blades, sports and leisure, pressure vessels, carbon / carbon composites, transportation construction and other fields. The preparation process of carbon fiber is complex. Usually, the precursor is obtained from acrylonitrile polymerization, and then carbonized to obtain carbon fiber. After weaving into carbon fiber fabric, it is compounded with resin, and finally applied in various scenes in the form of composite materials. At present, small tow is the main carbon fiber in China, but large tow is of great significance to reduce cost and large-scale application.
2) there are great differences in demand structure between China and foreign countries, and the demand for carbon fiber for wind power blades in China is growing rapidly. In 2020, the global demand for carbon fiber was 107000 tons. In 2020, the total demand for carbon fiber in China was 49000 tons, an increase of 29% year-on-year, accounting for 45.7% of the total global demand, but the dependence on imports exceeded 60%. It is estimated that the global demand for carbon fiber will increase to 150000 tons and 200000 tons by 2023 and 2025. The growth is mainly driven by the demand in the field of wind power blades. It is estimated that the demand for carbon fiber in the field of wind power blades will reach 60000 tons and 93000 tons in 2023 and 2025, accounting for 68.2% and 67.4% of the global demand increment based on 2020. In addition, the field of aerospace carbon fiber is in its infancy, and the breakthrough of domestic large aircraft is expected to usher in high demand growth; The lightweight requirements of new energy vehicles and the upgrading of battery boxes drive the demand for carbon fiber; Sports and leisure are widely used in China, and consumption upgrading has brought steady growth.
3) at present, China's carbon fiber industry is still in its infancy. The competition in China's carbon fiber industry is not sufficient. There are relatively few enterprises that master the core technology and can make the production scale. The utilization rate of production capacity is insufficient and lacks international competitive advantage. China's carbon fiber enterprises are relatively concentrated. Leading companies have the advantages of high market position, large cost side advantages and high customer stickiness. At present, China's carbon fiber demand is ushering in an inflection point, the production expansion plan of leading enterprises is being implemented, and the production capacity is expected to be released continuously in the future.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant listed companies with carbon fiber production capacity. We suggest paying attention to Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) .
Risk tip: the progress of new capacity in carbon fiber industry is higher than expected, the progress of enterprise R & D is lower than expected, the raw material market fluctuates violently, and the downstream demand is lower than expected.
