The demand for spring cultivation of potassium chloride has been gradually promoted, and the price of Salt Lake has been increased: according to Baichuan, Salt Lake Group announced that the price of potassium chloride in February was increased by 410 yuan / ton, and the official quotation of benchmark products at the station was 3900 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.75%. Since 2020, global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have risen and planting enthusiasm has increased, driving the demand for potash fertilizer. In the near future, the demand for spring ploughing will be gradually promoted, the downstream procurement volume will increase, the manufacturer’s inventory will remain low, and the mainstream transaction price will rise. According to Baichuan, China’s potassium chloride production capacity will be 8.6 million tons in 2021, and the production capacity of salt lakes will account for 60%; The output was 5.8146 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.45%. It is difficult for China’s resource-based potash fertilizer to break through the production capacity of the supply side in the short term.
The contract price of potassium fertilizer in 2022 is higher than expected, which is expected to maintain the high prosperity of the potassium fertilizer Market: according to Baichuan, on February 15, 2022, the Chinese negotiation team reached an agreement with the potassium company canpotex on the contract of potassium fertilizer in 2022, with the price of 590 us dollars / ton CFR. Compared with last year’s large contract price of US $247 / ton, CFR increased more than expected, which formed a certain support for China’s potash market price. At present, 62% of the mainstream quotation is referred to, and the quotation of Russian White potassium port is about 4350-4400 yuan / ton. According to Baichuan, China’s total import of potassium chloride in 2021 was 7.5662 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%. Affected by international high prices and tight goods, the supply of large contracts was blocked, and large dealers restricted sales in China, resulting in tight spot in China and continuous upward prices. At present, there is still a certain period for the arrival of large contract goods in 2022, and the import volume of border trade remains low.
The export of potash fertilizer from Belarus is restricted, and international force majeure will lead to a shortage of global potash fertilizer supply: affected by the US sanctions against Belarus, Lithuania officially banned the transit of potash fertilizer from Belarus from February 1. According to Baichuan, Belarusian potash fertilizer accounts for about 20% of global potash fertilizer exports. If there is still no ideal transportation scheme in the later stage, there will be some risks to the global potash fertilizer supply. In 2021, China imported about 1.75 million tons of Belarus potash fertilizer, accounting for 23% of China’s total imports. If the recovery time of Belarus potash fertilizer export is long, the price of potash fertilizer will be further pushed up. At the same time, Russia is also China’s main importer. In 2021, China imported about 2.25 million tons of Russian potassium chloride, accounting for about 30% of China’s total imports. Under the tense situation between Ukraine and Russia, international sentiment is expected to further push up the market price of potash fertilizer.
Investment suggestions: it is recommended to pay attention to Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , etc.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected, geopolitical impact, etc.
