Market Review
In February 2022 (up to the closing on February 24, 2022), CSI 300 rose or fell by – 0.75%, the automobile industry rose or fell by – 0.62%, and CITIC first-class 29 industry ranked 24th. In the subdivided industries, passenger cars (+ 2.27%) ranked first and special purpose vehicles (- 2.77%) ranked last.
Industry Review
Automobile: in January, automobile production and sales recovered significantly, with a large increase in output. The monthly production and sales volume were 2422200 and 2530600 respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 16.68% and – 9.17% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 1.44% and + 1.10% respectively.
Passenger cars: the production and sales volume of passenger cars were 2.0771 million and 2.1863 million respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 17.80 and – 9.71% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 8.77% and + 6.92% respectively. The chip supply has improved, and the production and sales volume of passenger cars has been positive year-on-year for many consecutive months. Specifically: 1) the monthly sales volume of cars, SUVs and crossover passenger cars increased year-on-year, while the monthly sales volume of MPV decreased year-on-year, including A00, A0 and B-class cars; B. The monthly sales volume of C-class MPV and a, B and C-class SUV increased year-on-year, among which the monthly sales volume of A00 car, C-class SUV and B-class MPV increased rapidly; 2) Independent brands, American brands and German brands increased year-on-year, Japanese and Korean brands decreased year-on-year, and American, German and legal brands recovered rapidly; 3) The monthly sales volume of luxury cars continued to decline year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The year-on-year performance was weaker than the overall performance of the passenger car market in the same period, better than the joint venture brand passenger cars, and the market share remained high.
Commercial vehicles: in January, the monthly production and sales of commercial vehicles were 345100 and 344200 respectively, with a month on month increase of – 9.25% and – 5.52% respectively, a year-on-year increase of – 27.81% and – 24.90% respectively, and a year-on-year recovery of -2.50pct and -4.78pct respectively.
New energy vehicles: in January, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452200 and 431400 respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 12.70% and – 18.74% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 133.55% and + 140.79% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high in January, and the production and sales volume maintained a high growth trend year-on-year.
Listed companies: the supply of the industry has warmed up, and the overall production and sales volume began to pick up. Among listed companies, SAIC, GAC and Chang’an increased significantly year-on-year, with significant growth compared with Chang’an, Futian and JAC. It is expected that the sales volume of the overall automobile market will turn positive year-on-year in the future, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will continue to increase significantly.
Investment advice
In the short term: due to the continuous rise in the quotation of some lithium battery materials, the lithium battery raw materials sector is better than the overall performance. In the near future, it is suggested to pay attention to the raw materials of lithium battery cathode, the recovery of passenger vehicle enterprises greatly affected by chips in the early stage, and core parts enterprises, such as Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) .
Risk tip: China’s economic growth is lower than expected; The overseas covid-19 pneumonia epidemic continued to spread.
