Events
On February 23, the semiconductor sector rebounded sharply, and the industry index rose 6.06%. Among them, photoresist and semiconductor equipment industry led the increase, with index increases of 7.13% and 9.63% respectively.
Key investment points
The market style is switched, the industry is short of core again, and the price rise of automobile chips is beginning to appear. Since the 22nd, the semiconductor industry has continued to rebound strongly. On the one hand, due to the steady growth of undervalued market style in the early stage and the overall killing valuation of high growth track stocks, the semiconductor industry has started to callback since early December 21, with the largest decline of 27.61%. Some leading stocks with high growth in the early stage are close to halving, and the overall callback is relatively sufficient. Recently, the market style gradually tilted to the growth sector, and the high boom track stocks have rebounded to varying degrees. After the Spring Festival, the new energy, semiconductor and cro industry indexes rose at a low level, with 11.45%, 13.01% and 13.2% respectively; On the other hand, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry is still at a high level. Different from the previous market expectation that the prosperity of the industry in the whole year is high before and low after, driven by the demand driven by the downstream of high prosperity such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, the supply tension of Automotive chips is intensified, and the industry may face a new round of price rise. At present, Infineon has been expected to raise its price by about 15% - 20%, which is higher than the market expectation. At the same time, China Central Television has exploded again, there is a serious shortage of automotive chips, and the semiconductor industry may usher in a certain degree of valuation repair in the short term.
In the direction, it is suggested to pay attention to the upstream equipment and materials, as well as the downstream demand driven automotive chip field. On the one hand, the capital expenditure of downstream wafer foundry will remain high in 2022. TSMC expects that the capital expenditure will reach US $40-44 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 33% - 46%; The capital expenditure of liandian in 2022 is expected to reach US $3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 67%; Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) the capital expenditure in 2022 will also reach 5 billion yuan, and its projects in Beijing and Shenzhen will also be put into operation in 2022. Moreover, the 2022q1 performance guidelines given by the company are relatively optimistic. The company expects the revenue of 2022q1 to increase by 15% to 17% month on month, which will provide strong support for the prosperity of upstream equipment and materials. On the other hand, due to the high prosperity of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, the demand for power semiconductors dominated by MOSFET and IGBT is relatively strong. It is expected that the shortage of automobile chips will run through 2022, with rising costs and tight supply, and the industry may usher in a new round of price rise.
Investment suggestion: at present, the PE (TTM) of the semiconductor industry is 55.64 times, which is in the 11.35% quantile in the past five years. The valuation cost performance is significant. In the short term, we can pay attention to the oversold rebound. In the medium and long term, we continue to be optimistic about the upstream equipment and materials and the downstream demand driven automotive chip field.
Risk factors: the landing of new capacity is less than expected; The competition between China and the United States in science and technology has intensified; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
