\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383)
Profit under pressure but marginal repair
The company issued a performance express, and achieved an operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.99%. Although the company's operating income increased year-on-year, due to the decline of industry fundamentals in the second half of the year and the impact of the epidemic in the year, the company's project settlement scale was less than expected and failed to successfully hedge the negative impact of the decline of settlement gross profit margin on profits, so the net profit attributable to the parent showed a negative growth.
The company's profit margin continues to repair. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the single quarter net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.6%, which continued to increase by 6 percentage points compared with the third quarter. With the settlement of low gross profit projects, the company's profit margin will continue to recover and can be expected in the future.
Sales increased against the trend and enriched the resources to be carried forward
In 2021, the company achieved a total contracted area of 13.77 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15%; The total contract amount reached 286.7 billion yuan, an increase of 18% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises was - 3% year-on-year. The company's sales performance was at the leading level in the industry, and the full caliber sales ranked up 2 places to No. 11. Although affected by the continuous downturn of the industry sales boom, the contract amount of the company in January 2022 decreased by 38% year-on-year, it was still better than the overall performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises, and the full caliber sales ranking continued to rise by 3 places to No. 8.
The company adheres to the balanced development of profit and scale and maintains the "buy" rating
Whether based on short-term policy game, or based on long-term model improvement and competitive ecology improvement, we are firmly optimistic about the performance of real estate stocks, and steady real estate enterprises will maintain their advantages. We believe that the company, as a steady leading real estate enterprise adhering to the balanced development of profit and scale, will pass through the cycle smoothly. Considering the company's settlement, we expect the company's EPS to be 2.10, 2.26 and 2.41 yuan in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the corresponding PE to be 6.0x, 5.5x and 5.2x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The company's sales growth continued to decline, the settlement progress was lower than expected, and the profit margin of settlement projects was lower than expected
