\u3000\u3000 Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (603605)
Key points of business tracking from January to February: the company's fundamentals continued to improve, the large single product matrix at the product end was upgraded and improved, the multi platform at the channel end had a bright start to the year, and the brand side Caitang led to boost the second curve. It is suggested to focus on the current investment allocation opportunities.
Product side: stick to the big single product strategy + broaden and improve the product matrix. 1) product marketing upgrading is expected to boost the volume growth of the original large single products: from the ruby essence to the big single product strategy, to launch the double resistance essence to lead the "early C night A" trend, and continuously expand the research and development efforts to support the upgrading of the large single product to the 2 version. The comprehensive and accurate marketing put forward to improve the efficiency of the promotion, so that it can gradually be honored as a continuous contribution to revenue and brand voice. It also provides guidelines for the upgrading of source, essence, sunscreen, smear mask, etc. 1 version. 2) R & D and optimization of the large single product matrix: new and perfect: from anti aging to repair, from essence to multiple products, large single product matrix is becoming more and more abundant. In 22 January, the company launched blue bottles, orange bottles, two bowling and ampoule essence, breaking through the traditional form of ampoule single agent, water and oil storage, namely mixing and high-energy locks.
Channel end: Tmall channel performance outstanding year, the channel is expected tiktok continues to increase. 1) Traditional online channels: tmall channel grew significantly in the first year. Based on Amoy's huge traffic and the foundation of head anchor fans, tmall will still be the basic dish of the company's online channel for a long time in the future. Amoy data shows that the overall performance of tmall's channel skin care industry was poor in January 22, with sales down 33.2% year-on-year, while the main brand Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) achieved gmv1 200 million yuan, an increase of 13.4% against the trend, with a bright performance at the beginning of the year. 2) online emerging channels: tiktok channel is expected to continue to grow. Tiktok tiktok took the lead in the layout of the new air gap and kept pace with the new layout of the platform. In early 21, the two sides reached a strategic cooperation to win a win-win situation. According to the data of flying melon, the brand GMV tiktok exceeded 21 yuan in the 21 year, and in the GMV monthly TOP10 list of the beauty shop, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) beauty shop is ranked the top ten, based on the development of the vibrato and the brand first mover advantage. 22 years tiktok channel is expected to continue to increase 21 years. 3) Offline channels: annual sales are expected to remain stable. The impact of the epidemic is expected to remain in the past 22 years. Under the strategies of offline inventory reduction, network adjustment and upgrading, product structure adjustment, building and expanding key department store systems, the sales volume is expected to be stable.
Brand side: the new brand enables the growth of the company, and Caitang leads to boost the growth of the second curve. 1) a new force suddenly rises. The product of Tmall, which is based on the makeup, milk, foundation and repair sector, is based on the endorsement of the founder, Tang Yi endorsement + product structure, multiple balances and marketing. The volume of the Tmall's products has increased by 21 yuan, and the total number of GMV has reached 297 million yuan in the whole year, and nearly 90 million in the single month in November. With the continuous marketing efforts of tiktok and Tmall, the new product of 22 years will be expected to boost the brand's growth beyond expected. 2) Other brands: or, as the first attempt of Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) to enter the scalp care market, focuses on the slow lifestyle under the scalp care of Japanese hot spring water. It has the endorsement of top experts and is positioned as medium and high-end. It landed in the Chinese market in June 21; Kerui skin is a new high-efficacy skin care brand launched in 21 years. At present, it is still in the period of brand adjustment and is expected to break through and upgrade in the future; As the pioneer brand of skin peptide, " Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) " is stationed in Tmall international in 2019. In the future, it will take advantage of the strong channel and marketing advantages of Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) to achieve the effect of "1+1 > 2".
Investment suggestions: channel reform leads the rise of the component party, the efficacy of skin care continues to be in high prosperity, the accelerated development of domestic brands, management upgrading + product remodeling + grasping channel dividends and focusing on marketing output. Three factors promote the company's overall high-quality development from channel to product and brand upgrading. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.669 billion / 5.789 billion / 7.051 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 24.42% / 23.98% / 21.81%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 599 million / 747 million / 927 million respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 25.79% / 24.73% / 24.19% respectively. As of the closing price on February 17, the corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 will be 62.78x/50.33x/40.53x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of decline in the prosperity of cosmetics, the risk of intensified competition in cosmetics, the risk of sub brand incubation falling short of expectations, the risk of new product promotion falling short of expectations, and the risk of continuous reduction of holdings by the management
