\u3000\u3000 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516)
Event: on February 21, the company issued a performance express.
Benefiting from the improvement of gross profit margin of new products and the strengthening of cost control ability, the net profit margin exceeded expectations. According to the company’s performance express, in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 355 million yuan (the upper limit of performance forecast was 342 million yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 128.69%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 322 million (the upper limit of performance forecast is RMB 320 million), a year-on-year increase of + 135.35%. In 2021, the net interest rate (calculated based on the net profit attributable to the parent company) reached 17.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.8pp. The net interest rate exceeded the expectation mainly due to the superposition of many reasons: 1) during the reporting period, the share based payment expense of the company was 6.4286 million yuan, which was included in the recurring profit and loss, and the impact on the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 5.4643 million yuan, which was lower than the expectation; 2) The gross profit margin of large-scale new products of the company remains high; 3) Good impairment and expense control; 4) Government subsidies.
It is expected that silicon materials will enter the price decline range in 2022, release the pressure on component profits and strengthen the company β Advantages. According to solarzoom data, the maximum increase of silicon material price in 2021 is more than 200%. On the one hand, due to the long production cycle of silicon material, there is a long-term mismatch between supply and demand. On the other hand, due to the impact of 2021 film, the polysilicon industry, as a high energy consuming industry, has been affected by production restriction, aggravating the imbalance between supply and demand of silicon material. With Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daquan, poly GCL and other new polysilicon production capacity put into operation, the mismatch between polysilicon supply and demand is expected to improve. Although the short-term silicon material price still has an upward trend, we believe that the polysilicon material will gradually turn to the price decline range in 2022. The price reduction of silicon material is expected to release the profit pressure of component links, strengthen the bidding intention of component links and strengthen component equipment companies β Properties.
Component expansion + multi platform layout of semiconductor and lithium battery, and orders in 22 years are expected to continue to reach a new high, α+β Overlay uplink. In the first three quarters of 2021, the new orders signed by the company reached 2.863 billion yuan, and we expect the new orders to reach 4 billion yuan in the whole year of 21. Looking forward to 2022, in terms of photovoltaic, in 2022, the company will continue to benefit from the replacement of large-size, smbb and other new products and the expansion of module production. The order is expected to continue to grow. The capacity of the company’s single crystal furnace is climbing rapidly, and the verification of key customers is smooth. The light injection annealing furnace suitable for n-type battery has won the order of Jingke. In terms of lithium battery, the company’s module pack line and cylindrical detection equipment have received orders from major customers such as honeycomb and Nanjing LG respectively in 21 years, and are expected to continue to benefit from the expansion of lithium battery production in 22 years. In terms of semiconductors, the company’s aluminum wire bonding machine is mainly used in high boom downstream industries such as power chips of new energy vehicles. There is a wide space for domestic substitution. It is expected to place batch orders in 2022, becoming an important profit growth point after series welding machines. The company’s orders are expected to increase continuously in 22 years, α+β Overlay uplink.
Profit forecast: benefiting from the continuation of the high-frequency iteration of the series welding machine and the promotion of the layout of the company’s bonding machine, lithium battery and other multi platforms, the profit forecast of the company is raised. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 360 / 550 / 720 million from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to pe51 / 33 / 25 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the iteration of module technology is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
