\u3000\u3000 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) (300999)
Events
The company disclosed the 2021 performance express:
During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 226.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.1%.
In Q4 single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 63.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.55%.
Brief comment
The company’s main products are just needed, and the volume and price maintain an upward trend
Under the pressure of overall consumption last year, the company’s revenue maintained steady growth. The revenue growth rate of Q4 in a single quarter further increased compared with Q2 and Q3, mainly benefiting from: ① the company’s tob business pricing principle is to follow the market. In the process of rising costs, the selling price also rises, driving the average price level to rise; ② The company has strong channel power and brand power, and the product attribute of the company is rigid and less affected by the epidemic. The company continues to increase penetration and promote the sales volume to maintain growth.
Changes in channel structure and rising raw material costs affect profitability
The net profit rate of the company in the 21st year was 1.83%, the net profit rate of Q4 was 0.71% in a single quarter, and decreased by 0.48pct compared with 1.19% in Q3, which was mainly affected by two aspects: ① there were changes in the channel structure of the company, the catering industry gradually recovered in the 21st year, and the proportion of catering channels continued to increase, while the volume of catering channels was dominated, and the gross profit rate of products was lower than that of family channels, which affected the gross profit rate; ② The cost continues to rise. Facing the upward pressure of the cost, the company will stabilize the profit through price increase, hedging and expense adjustment. However, the price increase is a lagging means, so the cost increase cannot be fully covered in the process of continuous upward cost. At the same time, the competition pattern of the kitchen food industry where the company is located is relatively fierce, and the company also maintains a certain cost investment. In addition, the company is also using financial derivatives to hedge soybeans and other main raw materials, which will also cause losses in the process of rising costs. A number of factors work together, resulting in the cost still having an adverse impact on the company’s profits.
The company’s business has developed steadily, and the central kitchen is expected to land
The company is affected by the bulk price cycle, but if the cost cycle fluctuates downward, the performance is expected to improve. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term development of the company. At present, the condiment and central kitchen business is developing well. The production of condiment and soy sauce continues to increase. Last year, the fund was widely distributed in the field of Cantonese style soy sauce. At the same time, the central kitchen of Hangzhou was also gradually completed. At present, trial production is being carried out and the product is expected to be launched in Q2.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize revenue of 226.2 billion yuan, 254.5 billion yuan and 282.7 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.132 billion yuan, 5.264 billion yuan and 7.202 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.76, 0.97 and 1.33 yuan / share.
Risk tips:
Food safety risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate risk, etc.
