\u3000\u3000 Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599)
Events
Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) release the performance express of 2021
Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) released the performance express of 2021. The operating revenue of the company in 2021 was 44.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 1.647 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 48.1%. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.05% and a month on month increase of + 59.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 675 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 89.98% and a month on month increase of + 73.81%.
Brief comment
It is expected that the shipment and profitability of Q4 component business will be improved month on month
Considering that the new installed capacity of PV in China increased month on month in the fourth quarter, and the impact of the rise in the price of traditional energy overseas, especially after the soaring natural gas price in Europe, we expect the company’s Q4 module shipment to reach the level of nearly 8GW in 2021 and about 24gw in the whole year. From the perspective of profitability, although the upstream silicon material price further increased in the fourth quarter, with the continuous improvement of the company’s 210 battery and module production process, the company’s non silicon cost continued to decline, which can offset the pressure of rising costs to a certain extent. In addition, the company’s advantages in supply chain management ability are also reflected, We expect the profitability of the company’s component business to increase significantly month on month compared with Q3, and the profit per watt will reach about 0.07 yuan / W.
In 2022, the new capacity of silicon material will be increased gradually, and the component business will meet the volume and profit together
According to the company’s plan, the company’s battery and component capacity will be 35gw and 50gw respectively by the end of 2021. We expect that the overall component shipment of the company is expected to reach 40-45gw in 2022, and the proportion of 210 will increase to 80% – 90%. Compared with the small size, 210 components have obvious advantages in selling price and production cost of non silicon. With the superposition of the new capacity of silicon materials in 2022, we expect the company’s component business to increase in volume and profit in 2022.
The rapid growth of household and industrial and commercial installation demand promotes the large-scale development of the company’s distributed system
In 2021, China’s distributed demand grew rapidly, and 29gw of distributed photovoltaic installed capacity was added throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 87%, accounting for 55% of the overall installed capacity. Among them, the household installed capacity was affected by the rush installation at the end of the next year under the subsidy policy, and the new installed capacity in the whole year reached 21.5gw. Driven by the substantial growth of distributed demand, the company’s distributed system ushered in a rapid volume in 2021. We expect the company’s distributed system shipment to be about 0.6gw in the fourth quarter of 2021, and 1.8-2gw in the whole year. Considering that driven by the promotion of the whole county, China’s distributed installed capacity will still achieve rapid growth in 2022, we expect that the company’s distributed system shipment will reach 4-5gw in 2022, and there is great growth potential in the future.
Maintain the company’s “buy” rating
As the leader of 210 components, the company ranks first in the industry in component shipment in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, on the one hand, component shipments will usher in rapid growth. At the same time, after the proportion of 210 increases and the silicon price enters the downward channel, the profitability of component business will also be gradually improved; On the other hand, the company has strong channel advantage layout in distributed business. Under the trend of rapid and large-scale distribution, the company’s distributed system business will usher in rapid growth. In addition, the tracking support will be greatly affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials in 2021, and its profitability is expected to recover in 2022.
We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 44.49/87.91/107.23 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 18.76/39.42/5.289 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 52.64% / 110.11% / 34.17% respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk warning: the demand for photovoltaic installation is less than expected; Deterioration of competition pattern in component links; Silicon prices remain high.
