\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) (002508)
Event: Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) announced the 2021 performance express. The company achieved revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in 2021, yoy + 24.8%; Achieved a performance of 1.33 billion yuan, yoy-19.7%. Converted into 2021q4, the revenue in a single quarter was 3.08 billion yuan, yoy + 23.0%; The company achieved a performance of - 10 million yuan, with a performance of 540 million yuan in the same period last year. We believe that the company took the initiative to reduce the orders of large real estate customers and reduce operational risks. Due to the provision for bad debts and Q4 performance loss, the capital market has expected it.
Large volume of e-commerce and rapid growth of Q4 Revenue: the main sales channels of the company in 2021q4 are as follows: 1) we believe that the total revenue of offline retail and innovation in 2021q4 increased slightly year-on-year. In 2021, the revenue growth of this channel was 20% +, and the revenue of offline retail + innovation channels accounted for about 35% +. 2) Consumers prefer online shopping. We judge that the revenue growth rate of Q4 e-commerce is about 40%, the annual revenue growth rate of e-commerce is 30%, and the revenue accounts for nearly 40% in 2021. 3) In order to reduce operational risks, the company reduced engineering orders from large real estate developers. We calculated that the boss's Q4 project channel revenue declined slightly, the annual project revenue growth rate was large single digits, and the revenue accounted for 20% in 2021 +. We can see that the sales area of new commercial housing in China in 2021h1 is yoy + 29.4%, and the time interval from residential sales to kitchen power demand is four quarters, which will drive the sales of Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) 2022h1.
Provision for bad debts and decline in annual performance: according to the announcement, Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) provision for bad debts in 2021 was 710 million yuan (about 630 million yuan for Evergrande group and its member enterprises and about 80 million yuan for other customers), which had an impact on the performance of the current period. If this influence is excluded, we calculate that the growth rate of the company's performance in 2021 is about 13%, reflecting a good business situation.
Rapid growth of new kitchen appliances: from the perspective of shipment caliber, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of the company's steaming and baking machines and dishwashers in 2021 will be 50% + / 100% + respectively. Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) pay attention to the sales of new categories such as integrated steaming and baking machines and dishwashers, and actively launch new products in line with the usage habits of Chinese consumers, which have been recognized by the market (see the in-depth report "year of change, re-examine the boss's" fickleness "and the report" layout of new products, from "defense" to "attack"). According to Ovi data, in 2021, the share of offline retail sales of "boss brand" integrated steaming and baking machine was 34.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.9pct, ranking first in the industry; The share of offline retail sales of "boss brand" embedded dishwasher was 17.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.0pct, ranking second in the industry. We believe that the company's promotion of new kitchen electricity is also conducive to improving the supporting sales rate and customer unit price, and driving the growth of revenue.
Investment suggestion: as a high-end kitchen electricity leader, Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) is good at responding to changes in market demand and adjusting its own products, channels and other business strategies in time. We believe that this excellent emergency management ability is the basis for the stable growth of the company's performance. We expect EPS of Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) from 2021 to 2022 to be 1.41/2.43 yuan respectively, maintaining the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 43.74 yuan, corresponding to 18 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk tip: real estate sales fell sharply and the market acceptance of embedded new products was low
