\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Investment summary
Sensitive muscle efficacy skin care leader, rich category matrix
Medical research and empowerment, sensitive muscle care. Pharmaceutical companies have strong R & D background, focus on pure natural plant skin care, and are committed to solving the problem of sensitive skin care. The company has launched 13 series of anti acne and anti acne products, such as "whitening oil" and "Weichu" series. In terms of products, channels, marketing operations and company management, the company's comprehensive advantages are prominent. According to the performance forecast, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 820-890 million in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 50.9% ~ 63.8%.
Efficacy skin care is popular, with high track barriers and excellent pattern
The penetration rate of Dermatology grade skin care products is low, the growth rate is high, and the market development potential is large. According to Euromonitor International, in 2020, China's skin care market reached 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. In 2020, the penetration rate of Dermatology grade skin care products in China was only 7%, and Winona accounted for about 21.6% of the market in this segment. From 2015 to 2020, the CAGR of China's dermatology grade skin care products market reached 26.13%, higher than the overall growth rate of the cosmetics industry. With the increasing demand for sensitive muscle care, the market penetration of Dermatology grade skin care products is expected to continue the trend of rapid growth in the future.
Medical Research Co creation, multi-dimensional construction of brand barriers
Build moat barriers in multiple dimensions, and new categories open another growth curve. Product: Shumin moisturizing cream is a big single product of Winona star, accounting for a high proportion of the company's main business income, which is stable at more than 30%. Brand: Winona aims at sensitive skin care with clear positioning, and the differentiated positioning of sub line brands expands the track of strong effect skin care, anti-aging, whitening and sunscreen for infants and young children. Channel: the channel layout is perfect, and online self operation accounts for the largest proportion. Offline OTC channels are steady and large-scale, and the layout of CS and other channels across the country is advancing in an orderly manner. Marketing: be familiar with the psychology of young consumer groups, conduct all-round efficient and diversified marketing, make close contact with experts in major hospitals with medical endorsement and academic marketing, and enhance the professionalism of the brand. R & D: R & D investment is at the forefront of the industry, and pharmaceutical enterprises have strong genes. The sales revenue realized by core technology accounted for more than 95% of the main business revenue, and the transformation of R & D achievements was significant.
Investment advice
We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company's operating revenue will reach RMB 3.927 billion, 5.479 billion and 7.142 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, 39.5% and 30.4%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 848 million, 1.177 billion and 1.504 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 55.9%, 38.9% and 27.7% respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.00, 2.78 and 3.55 respectively, and the PE of the stock price before response is 81, 58 and 46 times respectively. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) focus on sensitive skin care, with significant track dividends. Compared with ordinary cosmetics, the growth rate is faster and the user stickiness is higher. The company's large single products have formed a strong brand awareness in the hearts of consumers. With the further improvement of the company's product matrix, the future growth is expected. First coverage, "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Single product category structure; The sales of new products are less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Online sales costs rise; Repeated outbreaks; Flow of core technical personnel.
