\u3000\u3000 Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169)
Event: the company issued a 21 year performance express, with a 21 year revenue of 5.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17.8%. The revenue is in line with the expectation, and the profit is slightly lower than the expectation. In addition, the company announced the share reduction plan of shareholders and directors, supervisors and senior managers. Stone Age (shareholding ratio 5.09%) plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 1704000 shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2.55%; Tianjin Jinmi (6.87%) plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 1336000 shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2%; Ding di (5.56%) plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 1.002 million shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 1.5%; Banyan Consulting Limited (4.04%) plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.67 million shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2.5%; Qm27limited (shareholding ratio 3.02%) plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 1336000 shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2%; Among the directors, supervisors and senior managers, Wan Yunpeng (with a shareholding ratio of 0.81%) plans to reduce his shareholding of no more than 136000 shares, with a shareholding reduction ratio of no more than 0.2%; Wang Xuan plans to reduce no more than 839 shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 0.001%; Sun Jia plans to reduce his holdings of no more than 726 shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 0.001%.
Private brands achieved high revenue growth and significantly improved China’s sales level: the growth rate of private brand revenue of 21q4 company was close to 40%, and the revenue of Xiaomi brand fell year-on-year. In terms of regions, Q4 overseas revenue has double-digit growth. After the launch of G10, China’s sales are in good condition, and China’s growth rate is more than 100%. According to Ovi data, the sales volume of stone sweepers in the past 21 years was 63% year-on-year, the sales volume was 34% year-on-year, and the average price was 21.7% year-on-year; The sales volume of clean electrical appliances was 74.8% year-on-year, the sales volume was 43.2% year-on-year, and the average price was 22.1% year-on-year; The market share of sales of floor sweepers and cleaning appliances was 13.9% and 6.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.96 PCT and 1.55 PCT respectively. The sales of floor sweepers in China are good, and the market share has increased.
Increase the investment in sales and R & D expenses, and the profit side is slightly under pressure: in terms of profit, the launch of G10 with high unit price of 21q4 may make a positive contribution to the gross profit margin. However, due to the impact of raw materials and the price reduction during the promotion period, the gross profit margin is expected to be basically flat month on month. On the report side, we roughly split it. In terms of sales expense rate, with the increase of sales proportion in China and overseas promotion, the expense rate increased by about 0.3pcts; At the same time, the introduction of new G10 and U10 floor washers increased the R & D cost rate by about 1.4pcts; In terms of tax rate, we expect that the income tax rate of single Q4 company is about 15%, higher than 6.27% last year. We expect that it is mainly due to the centralized use of R & D expense deduction in the fourth quarter of last year.
In addition, the company announced the share reduction plan of shareholders and directors, supervisors and senior managers, which is a conventional reduction. According to the results of the reduction plan published in the previous period, the shareholders issued the reduction plan, but it was not implemented during the reduction period. Therefore, we believe that the reduction plan may not be implemented.
Investment suggestion: we believe that in the past 21 years, due to the single SKU of overseas products and the shortage of global transportation capacity caused by epidemic and other factors, the company has experienced more container detention, ship jumping and poor transportation cycle, which has had a certain negative impact on the growth of the company’s revenue. Looking forward to 22 years, the company has launched the high-end s7maxv and mid-range cost-effective q7max series at the CES exhibition at the beginning of the year. It is expected that 22q2 will be put on sale one after another. At the same time, U10 floor washer has also been put on sale abroad. The introduction of new products will complement the original price band, enrich SKU and make the product structure more healthy and balanced. In 22 years, we expect that the company is expected to continue to invest in sales and R & D expenses, continuously improve products, expand brand awareness, and superimpose product structure upgrading, so that the company’s performance is expected to improve. According to the company’s express report, we appropriately raised the level of sales expense ratio. It is estimated that the net profit in 21-23 years will be RMB 1.4 billion, 1.7 billion and 2.1 billion (the value was RMB 1.5 billion, 1.9 billion and 2.3 billion before 21-23 years). The corresponding dynamic valuation of the current stock price is 32x, 26x and 21x, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; Private brand growth is less than expected; Overseas market expansion is less than expected; The change of macroeconomic environment causes the market demand to be lower than expected, and the uncertainty risk of the implementation of the reduction plan; The performance express is the preliminary calculation result. Please refer to the annual report.
