Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech on the morning of the 24th that he decided to launch special military operations in the Donbas region. Putin said in his speech that Russia has no plan to occupy Ukraine. The Ukrainian parliament passed the decision to enter a state of war throughout Ukraine. Affected by this risk event, the financial market fluctuated sharply, the global stock market suffered a sharp decline, and crude oil and gold rose sharply.
As of the closing on the 24th, the A-share Shanghai index fell 1.7% to 3429.96 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.2% to 13252.24 points, and the gem index fell 2.11% to 2783.9 points. A total of 1362.7 billion yuan was traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, a five-month high. More than 4000 stocks in the two cities fell.
On the disk, oil and gas exploitation and processing sectors soared, with precious metals, combustible ice, gold, gas, China shipbuilding, military industry, corn and oil processing trade among the top gainers; Digital currency, smart government, education, mobile payment, unmanned consul and other sectors led the decline.
the decline of US stock futures index expanded, the three futures indexes fell by more than 2%, and the panic index soared by 10%
Affected by the continuous fermentation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the three major futures indexes of US stocks continued to fall, with the S & P 500 index futures down more than 2%, the NASDAQ index futures down 2.64% and the Dow index futures down 2%.
In the Asia Pacific market, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell nearly 3%; The Nikkei 225 index closed down nearly 2%; South Korea composite index fell 2.6%; The FTSE Singapore Straits index and New Zealand’s NZ50 index fell more than 3%.
In the European market, the euro zone futures index fell nearly 3%, the VIX panic index soared 10%, and the Turkish stock index triggered the circuit breaker mechanism.
the capital inflow of Russian stock ETF reached the highest level since June 2018
Russia’s imoex opened down 11.24%; The Russian RTS index fell 15.95% at the opening, and the decline expanded to 20% as of press time.
Earlier, the Bank of Russia decided to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the situation in the foreign exchange market. In addition, on the 24th local time, the Russian St. Petersburg Stock Exchange announced the closure of business. Earlier, the Moscow Stock Exchange announced that all exchanges had suspended trading and were expected to resume at 10 a.m. local time.
However, despite the continued tension in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian stock ETF had the largest capital inflow in more than three years. According to media statistics, despite the tense geopolitical situation, the $1.4 billion Vaneck Russia ETF attracted nearly $58 million in capital inflows on Tuesday, us time, the highest since June 2018 and is expected to reach the highest capital inflows since December 2020.
spot gold hit a new high in more than a year, and Brent crude oil exceeded $100
As the risk aversion increased, spot gold broke through the $1950 / oz mark from $1910, reaching a new high in more than a year.
International oil prices also continued to rise. The main contract of us oil futures increased to 3%, and the contract of oil distribution futures broke through the US $100 mark in April, expanding to 3.34% within the day.
what impact will the Russian Ukrainian crisis have on the capital market?
Yuanda investment consultant said that the emotional impact of the uncertainty of the situation on the global capital market is still fermenting. Although on the whole, China’s wide currency and credit environment continues, and the probability of sharp rise and fall of the index is small, the repetition of the bottom position is obvious, and the high probability of the position continues to fluctuate, so we should continue to control the position.
Guangzhou Bandung believes that with the continuous deterioration of the overseas situation, overseas hedge funds will continue to flow into a shares. Yesterday’s trading volume has returned to trillion. In addition, the recent frequent decline in overseas markets will also allow more foreign capital to return to the market, and yesterday’s index will make up for the decline of the previous day. The upsurge of new infrastructure construction has not yet subsided, which is still one of the main lines at present. Focus on the field of make-up after the sector rotation. Track stocks can focus on semiconductors and new energy squeezed by the early valuation.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) has combed the typical local conflicts since the 1990s, especially the global asset prices related to the United States and Russia, such as the Crimean crisis in 2014. It is found that in the short term, without exception, the outbreak of geographical conflicts will suppress risk appetite in the short term, resulting in the benefit of hedging assets and the damage of risky assets. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that from the general law, unless a larger and more extensive conflict breaks out, the impact of local conflict on major assets will not be particularly significant, and the duration is relatively short. It is often impulsive and will not completely change the original trend. In the cases we have combed since the 1990s, except that the September 11, 2001 incident triggered a broader panic because the United States was directly attacked (the average decline of developed stock markets was ~ 5%, and the decline of emerging markets was as high as ~ 10%) and the impact time on the market was longer, the impact time of other times was calculated by week, and the decline of the market during this period was usually about 5%.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) according to the research report, in the previous “close to war” crises, the historical law of the highest yield of “contrarian investment strategy” at the most panic moment may indicate that the probability of risky assets represented by stocks will “hit the bottom” periodically, while the price of crude oil may “reach the top” periodically with high probability. In fact, during the cold war, this “close to war” confrontation between major powers occurred four times: the first Berlin crisis in June 1948, the Second Berlin crisis at the end of 1958, the third Berlin crisis in mid-1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. By observing the performance of U.S. stocks in these periods, it can be found that from the perspective of the general trend, except that the first Berlin crisis, which broke out shortly after World War II, caused global investors’ concern about the outbreak of World War III, which led to the adjustment of U.S. stocks for nearly a year, The impact of the other two Berlin crises and the Cuban Missile Crisis on the Dow Jones index was an “event shock” for up to 1-2 months, which did not change the overall bull market of US stocks.
