The price of lithium carbonate once regarded 200000 yuan / ton as a "big mark", but now "500000 yuan / ton" is ready to come out. Compared with the price of lithium salt, the mineral situation of lithium salt plant has obviously become an important topic for investors. According to the capacity "map" provided by the financial associated press by Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy division, Pilbara with Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ) is the "new king" of lithium mine capacity in 2022. In addition, sqm with Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ) is the "leader" in lithium salt capacity.
According to Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy division, the growth rate of global lithium resource supply in 2022 is about 24%, but the growth rate of demand is nearly 40%. On this premise, the non dominant cathode enterprises may face capacity clearance. The rising price of lithium salt has also brought great pressure on the profitability of auto enterprises. It is worth noting that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger Federation, told the financial associated press that there has been no slowdown in the sales of new energy vehicles from January to February.
new lithium production capacity "map" appears
According to the data of China Nonferrous Metals Association, the global lithium salt production in 2020 was about 350000 tons of LCE, of which China accounted for 77.1%, making it the largest lithium salt supplier in the world. According to USGS data, China's lithium production accounted for 17.1% of the world in 2020. This means that China is heavily dependent on imports of lithium minerals.
Judging from the proposed new lithium mines in 2022, Australia occupies a major position. According to Qu Yinfei's statistics, in 2022, the planned new capacity of ngungaju plant under Pilbara is 220000 tons, and the planned new capacity of Pilbara phase II is 480000 tons. The total new capacity of Pilbara is 700000 tons, which is the lithium miner with the largest new capacity in 2022.
As of December 31, 2021, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) held pilbara5 8% equity. According to the information of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 2020 annual report, the first phase of Pilbara project will provide the company with no more than 160000 tons of 6% lithium concentrate every year. After the second phase of the project is constructed and put into operation, it will provide the company with no more than 150000 tons of lithium concentrate every year.
The lithium miner second only to Pilbara is talison, whose greenbushes lithium mine has a capacity of 1.34 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is only 43% in 2020. The capacity of phase II expansion project (cgp2, with a new capacity of 600000 tons of chemical grade lithium concentrate) has been idle since it was completed in 2019. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) according to the research summary, the tailings pond project started in 2019 is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of 2022, adding about 300000 t / a lithium concentrate capacity to talison.
In addition, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) (002497. SZ) took shares in core Australia and signed an underwriting agreement for 75000 tons of lithium concentrate. Core has started mine construction, and lithium concentrate is expected to be supplied in the fourth quarter of this year.
In terms of overseas lithium salt projects to be invested and constructed, the main new capacity in 2022 comes from Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) sqm and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) cauchari project in Argentina, with the increased lithium salt capacity of 90000 tons and 40000 tons respectively.
In China, the growth in 2022 mainly comes from the production capacity release brought by the production of Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756. SZ) 20000 tons of lithium mica lithium carbonate project and the production of about 160000 tons of lithium concentrate of Lijiagou project with Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) participation; The new lithium concentrate of Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) (002192. SZ) is expected to be put into operation at the end of 2022, which has little impact on the current year. In terms of Salt Lake, the main growth in 2022 comes from the 20000 ton lithium carbonate project put into operation in Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792. SZ).
lithium supply is still insufficient in 2022
It should be noted that since the above chart is obtained by Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy division according to public data and internal data statistics, the specific situation should be subject to the actual production time and production capacity of the company. Considering the production time and climbing conditions, according to Qu Yinfei, the global increment in 2022 is expected to be 163000 tons (LCE), and the supply growth rate is about 24%.
However, in terms of demand, Qu Yinfei is expected to grow by nearly 40%. This means that in 2022, the supply of lithium salt is still insufficient in the face of lower initial inventory, which is difficult to meet the rapidly growing demand. It is worth noting that "under the trend of crazy growth of production capacity in the cathode material market, enterprises that do not have an advantage will face clearing, but the current market is not obvious."
The financial Associated Press reporter learned that the market considered whether overseas resource development would exceed the expected volume. Fang Jianhua, partner and President of the new energy vehicle sub fund of the national scientific and Technological Achievements Transformation Fund, once said that due to the long restart time of lithium mines, it generally takes 3-5 years, and overseas affected by the epidemic, policies and technicians, the time may actually be longer.
A person related to the lithium salt plant told the financial associated press that its overseas projects may not be put into operation on schedule due to the epidemic. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) a few days ago, the research report also pointed out that at present, there is no sign of easing the labor shortage. There is a risk of disturbance in Australia's lithium concentrate supply in 2022. The production guidelines of existing mines do not rule out the possibility of further reduction.
the new energy vehicle market has not slowed down yet
On February 24, according to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) , the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 470000 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, Qu Yinfei said that there is a part of "warning inventory" at individual smelting ends, and the inventory of downstream cathode enterprises is low, mostly about two weeks' inventory. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises have a high willingness to accept high prices, and ternary materials are slightly cautious in taking goods at high prices, but they can only accept them when they just need to purchase.
Behind the "only acceptable", the price of lithium salt may be difficult to say for the time being. Qu Yinfei further analyzed that in the second quarter, due to the increase of output in Qinghai and the increase of overseas import resources, the supply tension is expected to slow down, and the price may decline. However, there is a deep contradiction between supply and demand throughout the year, and the price of lithium carbonate is mainly rising due to the mismatch between supply and demand.
While the market is bullish on the price of lithium salt, it is also worried about whether the high price of lithium will inhibit demand, resulting in the increase and deceleration of the penetration rate of the whole new energy vehicle. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, told the associated press that the higher price of lithium will certainly affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries, which will have a certain impact on the car market, especially on the profits of car enterprises. However, from January to February, there is no slowdown in the sales of new energy vehicles.
According to further analysis, due to the strong demand for new energy at the terminal, insufficient production capacity and abundant undelivered orders (including the large lock price to transfer the cost to automobile manufacturers), the slight rise in price will not seriously affect the overall market demand. In 2022, many automobile enterprises have set ambitious production and sales improvement targets. Therefore, they are confident that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 5.5 million units in 2022, and continue to achieve a high growth of about 70%.
From the terminal point of view, Xinneng car brand does not have the breath of "rest drum and Yan flag". Some consumers told reporters that after the year, the marketing personnel of various new energy brands will take turns to invite test drives and introduce preferential conditions. For example, Byd Company Limited(002594) has eight gifts, including signing in gifts, pre-sale gifts and sincerity gifts.
An unpublished summary learned by the reporter shows that some experts believe that the demand for lithium resources at this stage will not be reversed because of the price; The speed of electric transformation of automobile enterprises is related to survival, and integration helps to combat raw material price and supply risks.
