Today (February 24), the three major A-share indexes opened low and gradually rose in shock at the beginning of the session. With the situation in Russia and Ukraine escalating again, the stock index weakened rapidly and showed a pulse downward pattern near noon.
On the disk, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has revived, the global risk aversion market has heated up, the industry and concept sectors have fallen more and rose less, only a few sectors such as gold and oil and gas have taken the lead, and the targets such as wind power and industrial machines have also been relatively resistant to decline. It is worth mentioning that the targets of national defense, military industry and medicine are ready to move, and the local profit-making effect is general.
In the gold concept sector, Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) , Chenzhou City Jingui Silver Industry Co.Ltd(002716) and other price limits, Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) and other stock prices rose sharply; In the natural gas sector, Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) , Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) , Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) and other trading limits.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that due to the frequent conversion of hot spots in the current market, growth stocks and defense varieties still have the possibility of strengthening in turns. It is suggested that investors should make balanced allocation and continue to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] golden concept
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that the overseas epidemic and geopolitical conflict intensified, economic uncertainty increased, and gold prices were supported. In the context of the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the uncertainty of the future economic situation still exists. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian issue continue to appear, which exacerbates the volatility of the global market. Therefore, the global economic uncertainty increases and the gold price is ready to go.
Baocheng futures also pointed out that the situation in Ukraine strengthened the safe haven attribute of gold. In the short term, the situation in Ukraine catalyzes the acceleration of gold upward, so we need to be vigilant against the impact of the decline of VIX high on gold. The main logic of gold will return to the hedging value brought by the decline of US stocks under the expected background of interest rate increase. Therefore, gold can still be long before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March.
Dongzheng futures said that the geopolitical risks of Russia and Ukraine have brought risk aversion. Since the beginning of the year, due to the high inflation in the United States and the repricing of monetary policy, the risk aversion attribute of gold has regained capital favor, and the investment targets, including gold related stocks, gold ETFs and gold futures, have received capital inflows. In the short term, the Russian Ukrainian problem is difficult to alleviate or worsen rapidly. The risk aversion gives gold some support. Even if the risk subsides, the callback space is relatively limited.
In addition, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January showed that the Fed policymakers attending the meeting expected to start raising interest rates soon, and did not disclose the clue that interest rates could be raised by 50 basis points at a time; Many people believe that it is suitable to start the scale reduction later this year, without mentioning the possible time point and scale of the scale reduction; There are also discussions and concerns about the potential risks of the economy. Compared with the strong expectation of interest rate increase in the market, there is no new hawkish signal release. Meanwhile, at a time of tension in Russia and Ukraine, the market's expectation of the Fed raising interest rates by 50bp in March decreased. Fundamentals and geopolitics are relatively bullish on gold.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) futures believes that based on the existing perceived precious metal pricing framework, we believe that the event type impulse hedging demand will cause a short-term rise in the price of gold, but whether it can form a trend impact needs to see two driving points: first, the event that triggers hedging will further escalate; Or, second, the hedge drive resonates with the interest rate drive, which can also give gold better upward flexibility.
[Theme 2] natural gas
Dongzheng futures mentioned that Russia is an important crude oil producer and exporter in the world, and Europe and Russia have a very deep dependence in the energy field, so the possibility of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports is low. Short term risk premium may lead to further rise in oil prices, but it is difficult to become a factor to continuously push up oil prices. Europe is at the center of the storm, Brent's increase is much greater than WTI, and the price difference between the two is expected to narrow in the future.
Minsheng Securities said that geopolitics, the weakening influence of Omicron and the decline of crude oil inventories are the short-term catalytic factors leading to the recent rise in crude oil prices. Among them, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects the market's expectation of the reduction of global crude oil supply: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history. Recently, Russia and Ukraine have once again entered the tension on the edge of conflict. Due to Russia's important position in the world crude oil market (according to OPEC world, Russia's daily average crude oil production in 2021q4 is 10.8 million barrels / day, accounting for more than 10% of the world's total output), the market is worried that Russia will be subject to economic export sanctions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will affect the supply of crude oil market. Among them, Russian crude oil exports account for about 42% - 45% of the output. If Russian crude oil exports are sanctioned, the impact on the supply of global crude oil market will be greater than 5%.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil continues, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and the short-term geopolitical risk premium of crude oil rises. Over the years, affected by the epidemic and low oil price cycle, the global oil and gas exploration expenditure has remained low. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the oil and gas industry. In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs. []
[Topic 3] medicine
Great Wall Guorui Securities pointed out that the valuation is at the bottom of history and the current investment value of the pharmaceutical industry is prominent. We suggest increasing the allocation proportion of the industry and paying attention to investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the performance disclosure of the annual report in 2021 and the first quarterly report in 2022 is imminent, and paying attention to the high-quality targets with high growth or higher than expected performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report; Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability; Third, the CXO industry. Recently, the CXO industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. Contrarian, focus on companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical section. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development; Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state's determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
AVIC Securities said that from the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined.
In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous promotion of the centralized purchase policy this year (centralized purchase of consumables, national purchase, alliance purchase, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top. []
[theme IV ] military industry
Dongguan Securities pointed out that it is optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and the replenishment of missile inventory are increased. We are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables. On the other hand, Wu Yanhua, deputy director of the National Space Administration, said at the white paper press conference of China's aerospace in 2021 that in the next five years, we should accelerate the transfer and transformation of aerospace technology achievements to economy and society, and be optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under Aerospace industry services and the Internet of things, as well as the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform.
Capital Securities said that by grasping the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth: 1) contract liabilities of main engine factory + verification of advance payment, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) .
Minsheng securities mentioned that it is clearly optimistic about the performance of the military industry in the post-2022 market, based on the following points: 1) in the "superposition of three cycles" proposed by our system, the industry gradually entered the "high growth" stage of supply-demand resonance during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and 2022, as the second year of the 14th five year plan, will still maintain high growth; 2) The company's performance confirms the high prosperity of the industrial chain. The contract liabilities disclosed in the 2021 interim report once again verify the sustainability of the high prosperity of the industry; 3) Since 2022, the sector has experienced a correction due to the impact of the market and some events, but the current position is at the bottom of the historical valuation. We expect the net profit of the industry to increase by more than 35% in 2022, with higher growth in the middle and upper reaches and high cost performance of the current configuration. []
