Investment view
New logic is needed in the new stage: the investment logic of lithium battery equipment is changing, and under the background of second-order downward guidance of industry demand, attention should be paid to: 1) the structural characteristics of future production expansion are more obvious; 2) Profit side elasticity and long-term growth space should be paid more attention. We believe that we should grasp the investment idea of lithium battery equipment in the next stage from the direction of short, medium and long-term business resonance.
Lithium battery equipment 100 billion market: the supply side driving factors promote the large-scale popularization of new energy vehicles to endogenous drive. It is estimated that the global penetration rate will be 21% in 2025, corresponding to the installed capacity of power batteries of 1189gwh. In the medium and short term, based on the capacity demand of power batteries, the average annual demand for lithium battery equipment will exceed 100 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025. In the steady state, we estimate that the annual demand for capacity depreciation and renewal alone is expected to reach 100 billion yuan.
Structural acceleration of production expansion: the world's first and second tier battery plants have accelerated their production expansion. However, due to the influence of orders, production capacity, financing, epidemic and other factors, the production expansion speed of different battery plants is different. Some manufacturers are expected to accelerate their production expansion in the future, and there may be structural acceleration in the industry. Ningde / Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) / AVIC / honeycomb / Funeng / GuoXuan / LG new energy / Ski / northvolt and other battery factories outside China may expand production or speed up.
Significant improvement in business quality: in 2021q3, the net interest rates of pioneer, Hangke and Lianying increased by 4.2pcts, 6.5pcts and 4.2pcts month on month, indicating that the turning point of profitability of the industry may have appeared. Looking forward to the future, the operation quality of some companies is expected to be greatly improved: 1) the amount of equipment investment is stable; 2) The equipment continues to be in the seller's market; 3) The scale effect is expected to be reflected under the cost front; 4) Cost factors are expected to ease.
New technology brings new demand: we believe that battery manufacturing technology is mild and has strong iterative attribute. We are optimistic about two benefit paths of technology iteration: binding head customers to enjoy the incremental demand brought by pre research bonus + micro innovation. At present, two directions are relatively clear: 1) if the permeability of large cylindrical battery is improved, links such as laser welding are expected to benefit significantly; 2) The popularity of pet copper foil promotes the explosion of demand for copper plating equipment.
Never stop in lithium battery equipment: after benefiting from the development dividend of the industry, it is expected to usher in the second growth curve: 1) large industries breed large companies. Lithium battery equipment is a rare field in special equipment that can have 100 billion level large market value companies, and the platform layout of Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) is gradually clear; 2) Mechanical processing and power electronics technology are highly mobile. We pay attention to the continuation of the growth of relevant companies in the fields of electrochemical energy storage and laser processing.
Related targets: select companies from the perspectives of structural acceleration of production expansion, substantial improvement of business quality, new demand brought by new technologies and building a second growth curve. The beneficial targets include Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Hnac Technology Co.Ltd(300490) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Kunshan Dongwei Technology Co.Ltd(688700) .
Risk tips: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the production expansion progress of downstream battery plants is lower than expected, the penetration rate of new battery technologies is lower than expected, and the renewal iteration of lithium battery equipment is lower than expected
