\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Dun'An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) (002011)
Event: on the evening of February 23, 2022, Dunan announced that Gree had received the decision not to prohibit antitrust review of business concentration, and Gree's acquisition of 29.48% of Dunan's shares was approved by the antitrust review of the State Administration of market supervision and administration.
Comments:
As a precondition for Gree's acquisition and fixed growth, the approval of antitrust review means that the delivery of acquisition matters and fixed growth progress are accelerated. The subsequent implementation of fixed increase will greatly reduce the company's financial pressure, supplement working capital and provide guarantee for the company's future operation and expansion.
The share of household appliance valves accelerated to the head: disturbed by the change of American procurement strategy, we expect the order demand of dunangli, Haier and oaks to increase significantly, the company's Q1 refrigeration valve orders are saturated, and the overall pattern of refrigeration valves is further concentrated in the duopoly of Sanhua and Dunan. In the overseas market, 21q4 company renegotiates the price for overseas orders. After the price increase, the overseas gross profit of the company's refrigeration valves may rise significantly in 2022.
The development of automobile thermal management business is smooth: the electronic expansion valve has a good pattern and high technical patent barriers. At present, there are no new players in the industry that can be mass produced, and Dunan products and production capacity advantages are clear. The company expanded smoothly in terms of new customers and models, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other vehicle manufacturers accelerated the application of heat pump integrated modules, the industry expanded significantly, and the potential development space of the company was further improved.
Profit forecast and investment rating: from the perspective of valuation, the recent correction of the company's share price is obvious, corresponding to the valuation of about 18x in 22 years, with a high margin of safety. We believe that the double track development and growth space of the company's refrigeration + heat management system is huge. We expect the company's revenue to be 9.68/10.8/12.71 billion yuan in the 21st-23rd year, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.1 / + 11.6 / + 17.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 410 / 580 / 750 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 141.3 / 40.9 / 29.2%, corresponding to 25.7 / 18.3 / 14.1 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the business development of new energy thermal management system is less than expected, the consumption of downstream civil air conditioning is less than expected, the promotion of the company's commercial business is less than expected, the bid winning of nuclear power project is less than expected, etc.
