\u3000\u3000 Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (600906)
The company is the only legal person securities company in Hebei Province and has grown into a comprehensive securities company with unique regional advantages. Follow the general trend of the industry, promote the transformation and upgrading of business structure, actively expand emerging business areas while deeply cultivating traditional businesses in some areas, and continue to maintain flexible and stable operation. From the perspective of income structure, in the first three quarters of 2021, the five major businesses of the company, including self operation, brokerage, investment banking, credit and asset management, accounted for 48.94%, 33.73%, 12.52%, 2.82% and 2.00% respectively. The return on net assets of the company increased steadily, reaching 4.95% in the first three quarters of 2021, but still slightly lower than the industry average.
Beijing Tianjin Hebei integration opens the company's growth space. The integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is one of China's current key national strategies. Among them, Hebei Province, as an important part, has a large economic volume and strong economic foundation, but the development of capital market lags behind the economic volume. Driven by the integration policy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, it has a large room for rise in the financial field in the future. As the only legal person securities company in Hebei Province, the company enjoys the regional advantages of being based in Hebei and deeply cultivating Hebei. With the continuous promotion of the national development strategy and the planning and construction of xiong'an new area, the future development space can be expected.
Brokerage and proprietary business are the "main engine" of the company's growth. The company has actively explored the market space of Hebei Province, deeply cultivated the market demand in Hebei Province, and has high network coverage. In recent years, the market share in Hebei Province ranks first in the industry. At the same time, in order to cope with the decline of commission, the company actively transformed wealth management with the industry trend, supplemented the short board of online channels, promoted the integrated development of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) and improved its own wealth management service ability. Self operating income supported the company's important performance, and the profit contribution increased steadily. With the reduction of brokerage, investment banking and other fee business rates, securities companies have sought new performance breakthroughs, and heavy asset businesses such as self operated business and credit business have been focused on development. Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) the self operated investment structure is based on fixed income investment, supplemented by equity investment, and the investment income has increased steadily; However, the asset allocation ratio of the company is far lower than the average level of listed securities companies, the use of capital leverage has a large room for improvement, and there is still a large room for improvement of self operated income.
Investment suggestion: the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei helps open business growth space. The coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is the need to improve and improve the capital function, build a new capital economic circle and promote the innovation of regional balanced development system and mechanism under the new situation. It is also a major national strategy to promote the development of the Bohai Rim Economic Zone. The company enjoys the regional advantages of being based in and familiar with Hebei. With the help of the coordinated development strategy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the company will take serving Hebei's integration into Beijing and Tianjin and promoting economic transformation and upgrading as the starting point, make full use of the advantages of Beijing and Tianjin in talent, information, capital, resources and policies, give full play to the function of capital intermediary, and actively strengthen the service of entity enterprises Efforts to serve the economic development of Hebei. At the same time, as an enterprise supervised by the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of Hebei Province, the company has established a good strategic cooperative relationship with large state-owned enterprises such as Tanggang group, state-controlled operation and Hebei Port, which provides strong support for the development of the company. However, considering that the company still has the attribute of secondary new shares, there is a premium of secondary new shares in the current price. When the average Pb in the industry is only 1.9x, the valuation of the company's 3.4x is in an overestimated range, which deviates from the medium and long-term value of the company to a certain extent. We expect the company's medium-term reasonable valuation to be about 2.5xpb, and the corresponding EPS in 2021, 22 and 23 is expected to be 0.21 yuan / share, 0.24 yuan / share and 0.27 yuan / share, with a "neutral" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
