\u3000\u3000 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225)
Event: on February 23, 2022, the company released its performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 152.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.32%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.83%.
The performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased significantly on a month on month basis. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company of RMB 6.679 billion, a year-on-year increase of 96.21% and a month on month increase of 11.86%.
21q4 output increased month on month. In 2021, the company’s raw coal output was 136 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.39%; The coal sales volume was 232 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.88%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved a raw coal output of 33.2248 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.57% and a month on month increase of 2.34%; The sales volume of commercial coal was 62.2768 million tons, down 9.28% year-on-year and 4.59% month on month.
The proportion of long-term cooperation is low, and the price rise cycle drives the release of performance flexibility. The proportion of Changxie coal is relatively low, and the sales are mainly land sales. It is expected to obtain higher profit elasticity in the upward cycle of coal price. We expect that the price center will remain high in 2022, and the company’s performance elasticity is expected to continue to release.
With abundant cash flow, gaogaohong lays a long-term investment value. According to the announcement, the capital expenditure of the company in recent years mainly focuses on the construction of xiaobaodang No. 2 mine and Shenwei pipeline. Xiaobaodang No. 2 mine has been completed and put into operation, and the capital expenditure of the company will be reduced in the future. As of 2021q3, the company’s book monetary capital was 41.887 billion yuan. The asset liability ratio is only 38%. On September 19, 2020, the company announced the dividend plan for 2020-2022. The company promised that from 2020 to 2022, the company would distribute dividends in cash, stock or a combination of the two. On the premise of meeting the normal capital needs of the company, give priority to the distribution of dividends in cash. The profit distributed in cash every year shall not be less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in the current year and the amount shall not be less than 4 billion yuan; If conditions permit, the company will choose to make interim profit distribution. In 2020, the company will pay dividends of 7.756 billion yuan, with a cash dividend payment rate of 52.11%. In 2021, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent of 20.936 billion yuan. Assuming that the dividend is paid at the minimum 40% of the company’s commitment, the dividend is expected to be about 8.374 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of 5.85% (closing price on February 23, 2022, the same later); Assuming a cash dividend rate of 52.11% in 2020, the dividend is expected to be about 10.901 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of about 7.62%. The dividend yield is high and the investment value is high.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.936 billion yuan, 23.178 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.16/2.39/2.55 yuan / share respectively, and PE corresponding to the closing price on February 23, 2022 will be 7 times, 6 times and 6 times respectively, with low valuation in the industry. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply, and the improvement of downstream demand margin is less than expected.
