\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) (002461)
Event: the company released the 2021 performance express. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%, a sales volume of 1.2763 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 6.4%, and a net profit of 610 / 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.4% / - 5.5% respectively.
Revenue met expectations and Q4 performed well in the off-season. The company's annual revenue is in line with expectations. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 820 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%. It is expected that the sales volume will maintain double-digit growth, which is mainly due to 1) Q3's slight decline in sales due to repeated epidemics and rain and typhoon weather, and Q4 channel may generate replenishment demand to drive the growth of sales volume; 2) The Spring Festival is earlier than last year, and Q4 takes the lead in preparing goods. Throughout the year, the company's ton price was 3555.5 yuan / kiloliter, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.4%. It is expected that the high growth of Chunsheng series products will drive the improvement of product structure, and the growth rate of 97 Chunsheng will lead. However, considering the impact of arrival discount and other factors, the sales volume will lead the growth of revenue.
Cost pressure and base effect drive performance pressure, and asset disposal income thickens performance. Since 2021h2, the price of raw materials related to beer production has continued to rise, but because beer enterprises will lock the price of raw materials in advance, the cost pressure of the company began to appear in 2021q3. In Q3, the gross profit margin of the company's sales in a single quarter was - 4.8pct to 51.4% year-on-year. However, due to the thickening of the current performance due to the income from asset disposal (land disposal by Zhongshan company), superimposed on the year-on-year decline of the company's expense rate, In Q3, the company's net profit margin on sales in a single quarter increased from + 1.6pct to 17.3% year-on-year. It is expected that Q4 will continue the cost pressure on the Q3 report end. At the same time, from the perspective of sales / management expense ratio, the 2020q4 base is low, and the 2020q4 sales / management expense ratio is - 6.0 / - 5.1pct year-on-year respectively. It is expected that 2021q4 will return to normal. Under the influence of many factors, Q4 in a single quarter, the company realized a net profit of 16933.3 / - 4587000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 73.6% / - 105.6%, a year-on-year increase of - 6.6 / - 11.6pct to 2.1% / - 0.6%, and the non recurring profit and loss was mainly the income from the disposal of the company's assets.
Continue to pay attention to the high-end process of the company's products. Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) at present, the development of 97 pure life and zero degree series is commendable. In recent years, the product structure has been continuously optimized. In the face of the impact of the epidemic, the company has also actively taken countermeasures. From the perspective of gross profit margin and net profit margin, the gross profit margin of the company in 2019 / 2020 was + 6.3 / + 3.4pct year-on-year respectively, the net profit margin was + 2.7 / + 1.7pct year-on-year respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 was + 0.1pct to 13.5% year-on-year, In the future, with the high-end products and the continuous improvement of operating efficiency, the profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve.
Profit forecast: slightly adjust the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021-23 will be 4.54/48.8/5.15 billion yuan (originally 4.54/48.1/5.08 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 6.8% / 7.6% / 5.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6.1/7.0/780 million yuan (originally 6.73/7.48/847 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 7.4% / 14.6% / 10.6%. The current market value corresponds to PE of 31 / 27 / 25X, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the cost rise is higher than expected; The epidemic situation repeatedly affects the movable pin; The promotion of new products is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
