\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) (002461)
The company announced the 2021 performance express. It is estimated that in 2021, the company will realize an operating revenue of 4.538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.79%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 612 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.42%, and a net profit of 495 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year decrease of 5.51%. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.44%.
The high-end volume drives the growth of sales volume, and the upward cost puts pressure on the performance. The company's high-end products such as "Xuebao" and "Chunsheng" increased rapidly, driving the annual beer sales to reach 1276300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.41%, slightly higher than the overall level of the industry (according to the National Bureau of statistics, China's beer output in 2021 was 35.624 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%). It is estimated that the ton price is about 3555 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.36%. The increase of ex factory ton price is not obvious. It is expected that the main reason is that the company's high-end products give higher discounts to channels when expanding channels. Since 2021, the prices of imported barley, glass bottles and aluminum cans have risen, and the overall cost of the beer industry has been under pressure. As a result, the company's net profit after deducting non-profit in 2021 has decreased by 1.42pct to 10.90%. The company's non recurring profit and loss + 117 million yuan, mainly government subsidies and land compensation received by Zhongshan zhubeer.
Deeply plough South China, broaden channels and upgrade structure. The company accounts for more than 30% in Guangdong and Dongguan. Companies in the region continue to work hard, focusing on breaking through catering, power nightclubs, e-commerce and other channels. According to the "3 + n" brand strategy, the company defines the brand combination of "Xuebao, Chunsheng and Zhujiang + characteristics", focuses on high-end products such as Chunsheng and filling, and continues to promote the upgrading of product structure. The company will adhere to the "double main business" road of "beer brewing" + "beer culture" to promote the long-term development of the enterprise.
The beer industry is in a high-end dividend period, and the company's performance is upward flexible. The high-end trend of the beer industry is accelerating, and the sales volume of high-end beer is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the future. Guangdong has a strong economic foundation and leads the country in high-end. The company is deeply engaged in South China. In the short term, affected by the upward cost and promotion strategy, the performance is under pressure. In the medium term, it will still enjoy the high-end dividend of the industry, and the performance is upward flexible.
Investment suggestion: the company released the performance express and adjusted the profit forecast slightly this time. We predict that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.538 billion yuan, 4.890 billion yuan and 5.181 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 612 million yuan, 722 million yuan and 797 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.28, 0.33 and 0.36 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 32, 27 and 24 times respectively, and the ton price of the company will increase slowly, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) plans to invest in the expansion of production capacity in Guangdong, and the competition pattern in the southwest market has changed. We downgraded the company to "prudent recommendation".
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The epidemic repeatedly affects consumption; Food safety accidents.
