\u3000\u3000 Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Thanks to the continuous growth of RF product demand and the leap of product structure from single discrete device to RF module, the company's revenue scale and profitability jumped to a new level. The net profit of 4q21 company increased by 47% - 77%, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Although in the short term, the shipment of the mobile phone industry is weak, we believe that the driving force for the annual shipment growth of 5g mobile phones still exists. At the same time, the shipment growth of the company's WiFi, lpamif and other products will form a new boost to the performance growth. Based on the judgment that the shipment of mobile phone market is relatively weak in the short term and the depreciation of Zhuoxin production increases, we slightly reduce the annual profit forecast of the company by 8%. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.5 billion yuan and 30 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2023, yoy will increase by 17% and 20%, corresponding to EPS of 7.4 yuan and 9.05 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE valuation of 36 times and 30 times respectively in the current 22 and 23 years, and the valuation is at a historical low, Maintain the "buy" rating.
4q21 achieved rapid year-on-year growth: thanks to the rapid growth of RF module revenue, the company achieved a revenue of 4.66 billion yuan in 2021, yoy increased by 66%, and a net profit of 2.14 billion yuan, yoy increased by 99%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 1.94 billion yuan, with yoy increasing by 89%. Quarterly, 4q21 achieved revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, with yoy increasing by 41%; The net profit was 610 million yuan, yoy increased by 72%, QoQ increased by 19%, and the net profit after deduction was 440 million yuan, yoy increased by 32%. Overall, the company's 4q21 performance continues to maintain a high growth trend, but the demand for RF in the mobile phone supply chain has slowed down since 2h20, but the test rate is expected to further improve the 5g mobile phone shipment target by 2022. Therefore, we believe that the growth momentum of 5g mobile phone shipment still exists. In addition, the shipment growth of products such as WiFi will form a new driving force for the performance.
Promote the core Zhuo semiconductor project and enhance the competitiveness of the company: the main structure of each building of the core Zhuo semiconductor industrialization construction project has been successfully capped at the end of June 2021. The mass production of Xinzhuo will open up all links of the company's RF chip from design to manufacturing, and will further enhance the company's voice in the RF field.
Profit forecast: Based on the judgment that the shipment of mobile phone market is relatively weak in the short term and the depreciation of Zhuoxin production increases, we slightly reduce the company's annual profit forecast by 8%. It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.5 billion and RMB 3 billion respectively from 2022 to 2023, yoy will increase by 17% and 20%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 7.4 and RMB 9.05 respectively, and corresponding to the current PE valuation of 22 and 23 years, 36 and 30 times respectively, The valuation is at an all-time low and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic has dragged down the release of industrial demand.
