Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, and the positive trend was relatively obvious. With the theme stocks making efforts one after another, leading the gem index to rise in shock, and then the large financial intraday force prompted the Shanghai index to also usher in an upward trend; In the afternoon, the track stocks continued to strengthen, which promoted the three major stock indexes to further rise, with a clear view of the strong pattern.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , at present, the market sentiment has recovered and the main line market sector has begun to form. although there are still many uncertainties in the external environment, the overall Chinese market has become a safe haven option for international capital due to the whole industrial chain and stable market environment , and the overall market sentiment has begun to be optimistic. In terms of operation, investors can continue to maintain low and medium positions at this stage. If the Shanghai stock index effectively breaks through the 30 day moving average suppression and goes out of the downward channel, they can choose the opportunity to increase their positions for the operation of hot sectors.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that on Wednesday, the three major A-share indexes rose across the board, the market profit-making effect was excellent, the high boom sectors collectively ushered in a rebound, the cyclical sectors were adjusted, and the volume of the two markets could exceed trillion, with the gradual recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to shake and stabilize . In operation, it is suggested to focus on finance, food and beverage Building materials, building decoration, steel, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Huaxin Securities believes that the rebound of A-Shares and the return of trillion transaction amount is a relatively clear signal, and the participation of investors has become higher. For the current market, whether it is the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase expectation in March or the Russian Ukrainian geopolitical crisis, the current market price has responded, but the market has ignored the steady growth expectation and the continuous implementation of the policies of wide credit and wide finance. We think the follow-up market will have positive feedback. But in terms of the market alone, focus on whether the Shanghai index can break through the 3500 point mark, otherwise it will return to the box again.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that due to the frequent conversion of hot spots in the current market, there is still the possibility of repeated strengthening of growth stocks and defense varieties. It is suggested that investors should make balanced allocation and continue to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the gem is more likely to rise slightly in the short term. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the investment opportunities of new energy, semiconductor, new infrastructure and some cyclical industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Macroscopically, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the recent introduction of industrial policies is relatively intensive . Firstly, the launch of the layout of “counting East and counting West” has accelerated the implementation of the digital economy development strategy. Secondly, the introduction of the strategic plan for energy storage has further clarified the direction of energy development in the future.
The agency further pointed out that at present, China’s economy is in a period of structural transformation, and the macro fundamental differences between China and foreign countries after the outbreak of the epidemic have also made China reap a better adjustment window period. Therefore, the recent regulation and control of aggregate has put more emphasis on “stability” to ensure the smooth operation of the national economy, To avoid the impact of the rising uncertainty overseas on China’s economy to the greatest extent, and the specific regulation methods may put more emphasis on “structural adjustment”, on the one hand to make up for the shortcomings of the previous rapid development stage, on the other hand to deepen towards sustainable development.
Therefore, in the context of cross cycle regulation, the policy side will likely introduce supporting measures to hedge the upward pressure of inflation caused by loose monetary policy, especially to firmly control the prices of upstream raw materials such as energy and base metals that are vulnerable to high overseas inflation. Structural adjustment may accelerate the layout around digital economy, clean energy and high-end manufacturing.
In terms of the general trend of a shares, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the shock market will continue, and there are certain structural opportunities in the market. It is suggested to grasp the main line of “stable growth” in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunities of high boom and low value sectors in the concepts of digital economy, localization of core parts and components, large country heavy equipment and so on.
In terms of operation strategy, YueKai securities mentioned that looking at the overall situation, we are not pessimistic about the future market. The two sessions will open next week. It is expected that the market will remain stable, there are external disturbance factors in the short term, and the medium and long term will return to the economic and profit fundamentals .
The industries with a large number of enterprises predicted in the annual report are basic chemical industry, electronics, medicine and biology, mechanical equipment, power equipment and non-ferrous metal industry . Among them, the valuation level of mechanical equipment and non-ferrous metals is at the bottom of recent three years. In terms of performance growth, we calculate based on the average growth rate of net profit in the performance forecast. Companies with a net profit growth rate of more than 20% are mainly concentrated in basic chemical, electronic, pharmaceutical, biological and mechanical equipment industries, and the industry with the most doubled performance shares is basic chemical.
In addition, over expected stocks (i.e. the net profit of performance forecast is greater than the consistent expected net profit) are mainly distributed in medicine and biology, electronics, basic chemical industry, electric power equipment and mechanical equipment. On the whole, the prosperity of chemical, electronic, power equipment, medicine and mechanical equipment industries has remained high, resulting in obvious dominance of profits. It is suggested that investors should actively pay attention to the high growth and underestimation of performance and high-quality stocks with better than expected performance .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the influence of more new trends expected by the two sessions, market sentiment will pick up . Considering from the aspects of valuation, prosperity and profitability, it can be configured along several main lines: first, the main line of science and Technology (meta universe, digital economy, new energy, electronics, etc.) : since the beginning of the year, the science and technology sector has led the decline, with a decline range of more than 10%. However, in the long run, the basic pattern of the industry is good, the prosperity is still high, and the rising logic of the industry remains unchanged, Therefore, in the case of large decline, there is a rebound repair power, and there will be a certain repair after the release of panic. And the two sessions will be held soon, which will bring some thematic configuration opportunities.
second, the main line of resource stocks (nonferrous metals, chemical industry, coal, etc.) : Although the profit growth of the upstream resource products sector has slowed down, it is still the sector with the strongest profit certainty. At present, the logic of tight global energy supply and demand has not been broken, and the sector has the power to rise and repair the long-term logic of supply and demand mismatch. At the same time, the current global commodity prices are relatively strong, which forms a certain support for the stock price of resource stocks. Nonferrous metals, chemical industry, coal and other sectors can be allocated appropriately.
third, the main line of steady growth (Finance and real estate) : in the market performance of the past quarter, the financial and real estate industry chain ranked first, mainly due to its good sector defense and low valuation. At the same time, the margin of real estate policy is relaxed, and the loose expectation of monetary policy is relatively consistent. The force of steady growth policy has brought certain increment to the industry. Recently, the two sessions have been held gradually. 14 provinces have made steady growth the top priority of their work in 2022. Steady growth is still the main line of all work next year. The high growth of social finance data in January also further enhanced the expectation of steady growth. Although the long-term fundamentals of the financial and real estate sectors have not changed substantially, in the short term, their valuations are at a low position, superimposed with the support of stable growth policies, and the financial and real estate sectors can be allocated in a balanced manner.
