From the launch of the first bottle of small packaged edible oil in 1991 to its listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in October 2020, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) (300999. SZ) took nearly 30 years.
the market once praised Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) as “Youmao”, but in the second year of listing, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) ‘s performance fell, which seems a little unexpected.
On the evening of February 22, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) disclosed the performance express of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 226.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.1%.
It seems that the price adjustment of some products last year did not cover the cost pressure caused by the rise of raw materials, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) previously told the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald, “The company will continue to carry out product structure adjustment and product upgrading, add more products with high added value and high gross profit margin, and make full use of the advantages of comprehensive enterprise group, marketing network channel, brand and R & D, so as to reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the company’s profits.”
price adjustment “lost” to raw material price increase
In the early 1990s, the consumption of edible oil in Chinese eating habits was mainly limited to bulk rapeseed oil, peanut oil, sesame oil, etc. In 1991, the first bottle of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) small packaged edible oil was launched. It further refined and packaged bulk oil products, which promoted the consumption transformation from bulk oil to small packaged oil in China.
Since then, ” Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) ” edible oil has gradually entered Chinese life.
After being famous in the consumer market for a long time, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) turned its attention to the capital market.
On October 15, 2020, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) was listed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange at an issue price of 25.70 yuan per share.
In the first year of listing, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) returned a good performance to the market. The company achieved an operating revenue of 19.922 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 14.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.96%.
According to the data, from 2016 to 2020, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) ‘s operating revenue increased from 133.490 billion yuan to 49.922 billion yuan, and the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) reached 10%.
The literature of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) chief analyst believes that the revenue growth rate of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is “higher than the overall growth rate of grain and oil market and constantly consolidate the leading edge”.
however, the third quarterly report of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) 2021 shows a decline in performance, which leads to different opinions of securities companies on their performance forecast in 2021.
For the net profit attributable to the parent company in Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) 2021, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) securities is predicted to be 5.36 billion yuan, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) is predicted to be 5.126 billion yuan, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) is predicted to be 4.191 billion yuan, open source securities is predicted to be 4.454 billion yuan, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) is predicted to be 4.8 billion yuan.
In the end, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) almost fell below the expectations of all securities companies. On the evening of February 22, 2022, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) disclosed the performance express of 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.2%.
The explanation of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is that “the decline of net profit is caused by the rise of raw material costs and intensified competition.”
The food and beverage industry analyst of a securities firm told the 21st Century Business Herald that there are three main reasons for the decline of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) performance. The first is the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials year-on-year; Second, the market competition is too fierce, there are too many homogeneous products, coupled with weak consumption and other factors; Third, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) increased the proportion of catering channel product sales, driving down the overall gross profit margin of the company.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) adjusted the price of some of its products last year to deal with the price rise of raw materials.
In addition to price adjustment, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is there any way to deal with the rise of raw materials?
“We need a certain turnover period to purchase soybeans from abroad, place orders, transport to China, and then carry out production, processing and sales. The price of raw materials such as soybeans fluctuates frequently as bulk commodities. In order to reduce the adverse impact of commodity price fluctuations on the company’s operating performance, the company will use futures and other derivatives for hedging.”
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) previously told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the company will reasonably arrange the startup of each factory according to the market demand. “At the same time, the company is also constantly developing new products and high-end products to enrich the product structure, improve the service level and enhance the overall competitiveness.”
The market value of has evaporated by nearly 500 billion
As soon as the news of performance decline came out, the stock bar of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) was “fried”.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) since its listing in October 2020, the company’s share price has risen from 39.51 yuan to 145.62 yuan on January 11, 2021. The total market value of the company has reached 789.6 billion, which was once known as “Youmao” by the market.
Therefore, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) in 2021, as the fourth largest market capitalization stock on the gem, was successfully selected into the constituent stocks of the CSI 300 index and became the representative of the food consumption industry in the CSI 300 index.
however, the share price of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) has almost been in a downward state since hitting a record high price, with a decline of 41.90% in 2021.
On February 23, 2022, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) directly opened low at 54.90 yuan, and finally fell 4.45% to close at 54.36 yuan. Intraday, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) fell as low as 51.58 yuan, a decrease of 9.33%, and the price of 51.58 yuan has fallen to early November 2020.
At present, the total market value of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is 294.7 billion, which has evaporated 494.9 billion compared with the market value of 789.6 billion at the peak, a decrease of almost 63%.
In the view of a private equity fund in Shanghai, compared with the net profit of 4.1 billion, even the current market value of nearly 300 billion, “it is still a little expensive, with a static P / E ratio of 72 times. However, from the disk point of view, there are still a lot of funds scrambling for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , indicating great differences in the market.”
Institutional investors are “intertwined with love and hate” for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) . Although the rating of the Research Report of securities companies is still “recommended” and “overweight”, there are not many who really dare to buy “real gold and platinum”, and there are great differences.
Through the comparison between the third quarterly report and the fourth quarterly report of the fund in 2021, the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald noted that the two-year fixed hybrid fund of Wells Fargo gem, which originally held 2902964 shares, significantly reduced its holdings of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) in the fourth quarter of last year, so that the stock once ranked the third largest position completely withdrew from the top ten positions of the fund at the end of last year.
However, Cathay Pacific Guozheng food and beverage industry index fund, which originally held 1294800 shares, increased its positions by 432900 shares in the fourth quarter of last year. Dacheng Jinglu, Dacheng Jingrun, Dacheng trend return and Dacheng dynamic quantitative fund also bought Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) slightly in the fourth quarter of last year.
since Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) has not officially disclosed the annual report of 2021, it is impossible to know whether the original heavy positions of e Fonda gem ETF, Tianhong CSI food and beverage ETF feeder fund and four private equity funds under Linyuan still hold this stock in the fourth quarter of last year.
the future of “Youmao”
Due to the obvious decline in performance expectations, institutional investors have conducted nine consecutive joint surveys on Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) since last year, and two since this year.
The most recent survey took place on February 15, 2022. In this survey, one of the issues most concerned by investors is “how does the company respond to the rising price of raw materials in 2021 from the perspective of product price adjustment?”
The answer of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is that in addition to raising the prices of some products, “We will also help absorb the impact of the price rise of some raw materials by changing the intensity of promotion and the investment of marketing expenses. Last year, we adjusted the price of some products, especially some products with relatively high cost pressure, but the price rise can not fully cover the rise of raw materials. The price fluctuation range of raw materials for rice and flour products Relatively small, we will first adjust the promotion and marketing expenses, and then consider whether to adjust the price. “
Whether the company will have “explosive products” of ” Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) 1:1:1 golden ratio edible blended oil” in the future, The answer of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is ” hujihua peanut oil is a high-end product focusing on professional peanut oil. At present, the product growth rate is fast. At the same time, we are also confident that we can form a burst effect in the next few years. a number of similar ‘ Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) will be launched in the future 1: 1:1 golden ratio edible blended oil ‘has unique product selling points, good consumer demand and strong profitability of product groups and brand groups to support the further development of the company’s business. “
According to the data of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Research Institute and Euromonitor database, in the ranking list of market share (retail end) of Chinese edible oil brands in 2020, the market share of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) under YIHAI KERRY ranks first with 32.5%, that of olivilan is 2.5% and that of hujihua is 1.9%, both of which are among the top ten edible oils.
Every move of “Youmao” in the future is the focus of market investors. Interestingly, although the performance of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) 2021 decreased significantly year-on-year, the current securities companies are very optimistic about the performance forecast of 2022.
On February 23, 2022, the latest research report of Guosheng securities predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) 2022 was 7.03 billion yuan, and the prediction of Minsheng securities was 7.676 billion yuan. Previously, for the net profit attributable to the parent company in Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) 2022, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) was predicted to be 7.822 billion yuan, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) securities was predicted to be 6.98 billion yuan, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) was predicted to be 8.13 billion yuan, and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) was predicted to be 8.113 billion yuan.
In addition, according to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) has more than 70 production bases in China, and plans to build Fengchu central kitchen Park in Hangzhou, Chongqing, Langfang, Xi’an and other places. Among them, Hangzhou Fengchu is in the trial production stage, and the first batch of products are expected to be launched in the second quarter of this year.
At present, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) has sesame oil, pepper oil, rattan pepper oil, sesame paste and other seasoning products, and has also developed soy sauce and vinegar products. In the event of closing Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) to investors, “The company’s Wanzhuang soy sauce phase II project in Taizhou is under preparation, and the production capacity will double after completion. At the same time, we are preparing to build a factory in Yangjiang, Guangdong Province to produce Cantonese soy sauce. In the future, we will also adopt dual brand and dual strategy to develop soy sauce business. As for vinegar, our Liangfen vinegar factory in Shanxi Province is also expanding production.”
“I’m not so optimistic. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) in addition to raising the price, I can’t see other effective methods. If the performance still fails to meet expectations, the company’s share price will still not improve.” The above private equity fund said.
