Another certain tuyere was born.
On February 21, the national development and Reform Commission issued the national plan for the development of the cause of aging and the elderly care service system during the 14th Five Year Plan period (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”), which proposed “vigorously developing the silver economy”, and made important regional arrangements and instructions for the first time.
The plan specifies that about 10 high-level Yinfa economic industrial parks will be planned in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Dawan District, Chengdu and Chongqing. Support Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan and Chongqing to promote international and cross regional cooperation in the comprehensive pilot of expanding the opening-up of the service industry.
On February 22, Wu Qi, executive director of Wuxi Digital Economy Research Institute, pointed out to times finance that why he first proposed to develop the silver economy in the metropolitan area, “China registered residence in the core cities and the eastern developed areas, and the household registration system has also restricted the population flow and public services sharing in the city and countryside. Therefore, the Chinese high quality pension services and products supply may face a long term tension and imbalance, which is the potential and investment opportunities of the silver hair economy.”
It is worth noting that the plan mentioned Hainan in the comprehensive pilot provinces and cities, which is the only province not in the above-mentioned four metropolitan areas.
According to the seven general data, as of November 2020, Hainan has 10 million 81 thousand and 200 permanent residents, 9 million 370 thousand and 300 registered residence population and 710 thousand and 900 net inflows. It is dubbed as “fourth provinces in Northeast China”.
“Indeed, many elderly people in Northeast China buy houses and settle down in Hainan, mainly because they like the climate there, which is more livable.” Home in Heilongjiang, Liu Han, who currently works in Hainan, also received his parents to work. She told times finance that her parents live in a “migratory bird style” and will return to the northeast for a period of time in summer.
The elderly population flows to the metropolitan area, and the scale of pension industry exceeds 10 trillion
According to the results of the seventh national census, China has 264.02 million people aged 60 and over, accounting for 18.70%, of which 190.64 million people aged 65 and over, accounting for 13.50%. Compared with 2010, the proportion of people aged 60 and over increased by 5.44 percentage points. The data show that the degree of population aging is further deepened and will continue to face the pressure of long-term balanced population development in the future.
In addition, the data from the seventh census also reflects another major feature of Chinese Society – the increase of population mobility, that is, the population gathers to urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.
According to Qipu data, the scale of China’s floating population has reached 376 million, an increase of 69.73% over 10 years ago. The urbanization rate of permanent residents in China was 63.89%, 14.21 percentage points higher than 49.68% in 2010.
In the past, big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou were the preferred destinations for people to go out to work. In recent ten years, affected by the siphon effect of the metropolitan area, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Dawan District, Chengdu and Chongqing have become the destinations for the floating population to settle down.
With the continuous development of China’s urbanization and population aging process, the elderly group in the floating population has become a group that needs more and more attention. According to the analysis on the mobility and life characteristics of the Floating Elderly in mega cities 2018 released by the Institute of statistical sciences of the National Bureau of statistics, caring for the younger generation, providing for the aged and employment constitute the three major reasons for the mobility of the elderly. The arrival of the elderly promotes the driving of urban related consumption, especially medical treatment, elderly care and daily housekeeping services.
In November 2019, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the national medium and long term plan for actively responding to population aging, which defined the strategic goal of actively responding to population aging.
According to the data, the market scale of China’s pension industry reached 6.91 trillion yuan in 2019 and is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2022. According to the survey consumption data and population calculation, the annual consumption power of aging groups in China’s first to third tier cities is currently estimated to be 6.64 trillion.
Wu Qi pointed out that the aging response will create a huge market space. Globally, the pension industry in developed countries in Europe and the United States accounts for more than 20% of GDP and only 7% in China. There is a huge space for the development of the pension industry. Despite the rapid development of China’s aging industry in recent years, some structural problems have become increasingly prominent.
“Population aging will drive the growth of demand for health care and elderly care services. However, at present, China’s high-quality health care resources, the scale of elderly care industry, the quality of elderly care services and elderly care financial products do not match the scale and trend of China’s aging population. China is facing great pressure in the fields of building elderly consumption infrastructure and cultivating elderly care industry.” Wu Qi further explained.
Therefore, it is urgent to vigorously develop the silver economy and establish economic industrial parks in metropolitan areas with relatively complete three industrial systems.
On February 22, Meng Lilian, chief expert of Sichuan Tianfu Health Industry Research Institute, pointed out to times finance that Yinfa Economic Industrial Park is an important carrier for the development of Yinfa economy, including manufacturing and service industries including primary, secondary and tertiary industries. “We should not only enrich the supply of supplies for the elderly and improve services for the elderly, but also become a base for the development of human resources for the elderly.”
Powering four tracks to fill the market gap of silver economy
Coping with aging is a long-term process. Focusing on the silver economy is mainly to respond to the needs of the elderly.
According to the Research Report of deppon securities in November last year, sort out the needs of the pension industry: the pension industry chain mainly covers four sectors: pension services, pension products, pension finance and pension real estate.
In combination with the development trend of “silver economy”, Debang securities summarizes representative sub tracks with strong certainty, significant characteristics and large development space, including: the first is the nursing industry, which involves the daily, rehabilitation and medical health care of the middle-aged and elderly; The second is the medical industry, including health products, medical devices, and online medical treatment; The third is the entertainment industry, which is suitable for short videos and online e-commerce retail for the elderly; The fourth is the tourism industry, including new tourism models such as middle-aged and elderly tourism and health tourism.
In terms of manufacturing industries involving the elderly, the plan has made clear instructions. The plan proposes to develop and expand the elderly products industry. Strengthen the R & D and manufacturing of elderly products. Vigorously develop daily necessities for the elderly to meet the needs of the elderly in clothing, food, housing and transportation. According to the needs of institutional elderly care, day care and door-to-door care, focus on the development of products in cleaning and hygiene, food and daily life, life care and other aspects, improve the aging performance of adult diapers, nursing pads, ulcer rehabilitation products and other products, and develop auxiliary handling, turning over, patrol inspection and so on Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . Develop products such as elderly monitoring and anti loss positioning.
The plan also encourages the development of industrial clusters: To build a number of leading industrial clusters with Chinese characteristics that radiate across a wide range of sectors, and encourage China Unicom to build a number of well-known industrial clusters with strong social competitiveness. On the one hand, China Unicom will give priority to the establishment of a number of industrial clusters with Chinese characteristics that have a wide range of rules and cover a wide range of sectors. On the other hand, China Unicom will build a number of leading industries with strong social competitiveness , promote China’s related industries to move towards the middle and high-end of the global value chain.
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As for the silver economy, Wu Qi believes that there are three problems that need to be paid great attention to in cultivating the silver economy and developing the aging industry: first, although the consumption will of the elderly has increased, the consumption capacity of some elderly people is relatively insufficient, which limits the consumption demand of the elderly; Second, infrastructure and products and services that meet the consumption needs of the elderly need to be improved, such as the increasingly prominent digital divide; Third, the policy system and safeguard measures of the silver hair industry need to be improved. For example, the supporting financial services are relatively backward. It is urgent to learn from the experience and practices of developed countries and speed up the innovation of pension finance in combination with China’s national conditions.
In view of the above problems, Wu Qi suggested that efforts should be made from three aspects: first, promote the development of old-age insurance and medical insurance to avoid poverty caused by illness and return to poverty due to illness; Second, accelerate the application of digital technology, speed up the improvement of pension digital infrastructure based on the physical and mental health and consumption needs of the elderly, promote the digital transformation of pension industry, and solve the digital divide of the elderly; Third, accelerate the development of pension finance, open the social pension service market, guide and standardize social capital into the field of pension services, and cultivate and support the development of pension service institutions and enterprises.
Hainan sample: Northeast elderly retirement preferred to develop the combination of medical care industry
Times finance and economics noted that the plan mentioned the comprehensive pilot provinces and cities of silver economy, including Hainan.
According to the seven general data, as of November 2020, the resident population of Hainan was 10 million 81 thousand and 200, with 9 million 370 thousand and 300 registered residence and 710 thousand and 900 net inflows. Compared with the sixth national census in 2010, the resident population increased by 1.497 million, with a 10-year increase of 16.26%, much higher than the total population growth of the mainland in the same period (5.38%), and the 10-year population growth is second only to Tibet, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Xinjiang.
So where does the population flow in?
People jokingly call Hainan “the fourth province in Northeast China”. According to the data of Qipu, the total population of Northeast China is 11.01 million fewer than that ten years ago, and the average birth rate is only 6.08 ‰. The three provinces have entered the stage of deep aging.
Most of the urban population in Northeast China is accelerating the “escape”, and many elderly people choose to retire in Hainan.
In 2014, surging news published a report entitled “journey of population migration of northeast people to the South: nearly 200000 elderly migrant birds from Harbin in Sanya”. The report quoted data from Sanya remote elderly care association. According to incomplete statistics, as of November 2014, there were nearly 400000 remote elderly people in Sanya, Hainan, including 200000 elderly people from Harbin in Northeast China.
The article is still on the website of Sanya Municipal government. According to the official website of Sanya Municipal government, in 2014, Li Baiqing, then vice mayor of Sanya, responded that “with the withdrawal of foreign population, Sanya will become an empty city overnight”. This is obviously a bit exaggerated, but the truth is true: Sanya is an integrated city, especially the seasonal inflow of population in Northeast China, which leads to the nickname of “Sanya City in northeast province”.
Due to the advantages of geographical location, Hainan is the preferred place for many Northeast elderly to retire and settle down. Liu Han in Heilongjiang Province stayed in Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) after graduating from University, and his parents settled down with him. She told times finance, “the Northeast winter is 30 degrees below zero, and the indoor temperature is more than ten or twenty degrees. One cold and one hot, the elderly will feel very uncomfortable.”
Liu Han said that there are many Northeast elderly people who spend the winter in Hainan, but they should have certain economic strength to buy a house in Hainan. “You should have a certain family background when buying a house. In addition, the price in the south of Shanghai is higher than that in the northeast.”
Liu Han mentioned that in recent years, with becoming an international free trade port, a large number of job opportunities have emerged in Hainan, and many young people in Northeast China have also come to Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) . Liu Han pointed out that Hainan has a pleasant environment. Not only is tourism developed, but also the health care and medical industries related to the elderly are good.
“Tourism and health care can be integrated with each other, and enjoy convalescent and health care services in tourism.” Zhao Jinping, an expert member of the Advisory Committee of Hainan pilot free trade zone (free trade port) and former director of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, once analyzed the times finance and economics. Hainan’s geographical location, climate conditions and environmental conditions are very suitable for the development of medical, health care and large-scale health industries.
On April 8 last year, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and other ministries and commissions jointly issued the opinions on several special measures to support the construction of Hainan free trade port and relax market access, including 22 specific measures in five major fields such as medical treatment, finance and culture, which is another major policy dividend to support the construction of Hainan free trade port.
It is reported that the field of medical beauty in Hainan is at the forefront of the country in terms of relaxing market access, thanks to many new breakthroughs and accumulation in the field of medical health care in Hainan in terms of system innovation and opening up.
