On February 23, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that driven by the huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects in China, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation projects may increase to more than 75gw in 2022, about 75-90gw. In addition, it is estimated that from 2022 to 2025, China's average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 83-99gw.
According to the data on the construction and operation of national photovoltaic power generation in 2021 released by the national energy administration earlier, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in 2021 is 54.88 million kW (about 54 GW), which means that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in 2022 is expected to grow by 39% to 67%.
It is worth mentioning that the current PV installation situation has exceeded expectations, according to the recent market spread of the installation situation of 1-volt in 2022. In January, the country added 7gw of photovoltaic installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 200%, of which 4.5gw was newly added, with a year-on-year increase of 250%; Centralized added 2.5gw, a year-on-year increase of 150%.
Industry insiders believe that the reason why the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded expectations is mainly driven by factors such as the decline of module prices and the postponement of projects last year.
Yang Yong, investment director of tengheng investment, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "last year, the power supply was tight, and the capital expenditure of many places and enterprises on photovoltaic and other new energy began to be reflected at this node in January this year. In addition, the decline of component prices has led to the rapid growth of installed capacity."
Industry insiders expect that with the strong growth of new installed capacity of photovoltaic, distributed photovoltaic, modules, inverters and other sectors are expected to benefit, and some areas will usher in the improvement of profit margin.
frequent large orders in photovoltaic industry
In February 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation, proposing to promote the construction of an energy supply system with clean and low-carbon energy as the main body, and accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, Upgrade the existing coal-fired power units in the region, explore the establishment of a mechanism for coordination between the sending and receiving ends to provide regulation for the transmission of new energy power, and support the construction, combination and generation of new energy power.
Many industry insiders expect that the promotion of macro policies and market environment will make the installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2022 exceed expectations.
21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the bidding of photovoltaic industry chain is hot this year.
For example, in the field of modules, since 2022 (as of February 23, the same below), many large group photovoltaic module projects have started bidding.
The centralized procurement scale of photovoltaic modules of Huadian Group is up to 15gw, double that of 2021; 7.5GW components centralized procurement and calibration of 4 central enterprises, namely PetroChina, Three Gorges power (Anhui), China Southern Power Grid Jiangsu and China Nuclear Power (Nanjing); Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and the centralized procurement of components with national power investment up to 12gw have been announced; The centralized procurement and bid opening of 4.5gw components of the State Power Investment Corporation, and a total of 27 enterprises participated in the quotation in 7 bid sections.
Listed companies in the photovoltaic industry chain also frequently receive large orders. According to incomplete statistics, at least five listed companies signed photovoltaic project orders in February 2022, with a total amount of more than 3 billion yuan.
On February 21, Aidi Xinneng issued an announcement and signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement on contract energy management of Baoding public institutions distributed photovoltaic power station project with Baoding Municipal organ affairs administration, and obtained the filing information of enterprise investment projects on February 18, 2022. The total investment of the project is 350 million yuan and the total installed capacity is 100 MW.
On February 22, Beijing Jiayu Door Window And Curtain Wall Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(300117) announced that Xuzhou Jiayu Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, undertook the PC general contracting business of 300MW photovoltaic project, with a total contract amount of RMB 1.35 billion.
On February 23, Wuxi Huaguang Environment & Energy Group Co.Ltd(600475) announced that the holding subsidiary signed a contract for 52mwp distributed photovoltaic power generation project of Geely Ronghe Xi'an base of about 166 million yuan.
components and other sectors are expected to meet the performance repair
At present, the photovoltaic industry chain is booming, and many market participants have expectations for the performance repair of some photovoltaic enterprises in 2022.
According to the performance forecast or express report of 2021 released by photovoltaic listed companies, the profit performance of upstream enterprises is the best, Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Ningxia Jiaze Renewables Corporation Limited(601619) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) and other growth rates exceed 100%, while the performance of middle and downstream companies such as battery modules and photovoltaic power plants is sluggish.
In addition to the leading PV module Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) which has further improved its market share by virtue of the technology and product advantages of 210 large-size battery modules, a number of listed PV cell and module companies are expected to turn their performance from profit to loss in 2021, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) and Gcl System Integration Technology Co.Ltd(002506) and other front-line module enterprises have attracted regulatory attention due to losses, and the prices of raw materials have increased significantly Soaring sea freight is the main reason for poor performance.
Gcl System Integration Technology Co.Ltd(002506) disclosed in the letter replying to the stock exchange that due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, the gross profit margin of the company's components has decreased significantly to about 4.5%.
Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) it is also estimated that the net loss after deducting non recurring profits and losses in 2021 will be 270 million yuan to 330 million yuan, which is due to the sharp rise in the price of main raw materials in battery and module business and the sharp rise in sea freight, which have a certain impact on the operating profit of the company.
With the significant increase of new installed capacity in 2022 and the bidding of new production capacity carried out one after another, professional investors believe that the photovoltaic middle and downstream industry chain is expected to usher in performance repair.
\u3000\u3000 "There is a game between upstream and downstream industry chains in the photovoltaic industry chain, which may gradually tend to have more reasonable profits in all links in the future. From the current time point, the silicon material and silicon wafer links will gradually and slowly transfer profits, and the power station operation, components and battery terminals are expected to benefit significantly. However, in general, the profits of silicon material and silicon wafer links will still be the richest, long The large-scale expansion of production capacity of large silicon wafer factories such as Jihuan and Zhonghuan has brought a large demand for silicon materials, which are better than silicon wafers. " Yang Yong said.
Yang Yong further pointed out: "The performance of module and battery manufacturers will certainly be repaired this year. Due to the marginal improvement of the company's business caused by the decline of raw material and other costs, and the scale effect caused by capacity expansion, the market concentration of several large module manufacturers still has some room to improve; in addition, globally, the overall price of traditional energy is relatively high, while the price of photovoltaic is relatively low Relatively low, which will bring further growth in installed capacity. "
Qi Haizhen, President of Beijing Teyi sunshine new energy, also said: "The continuous rise in the price of silicon last year has directly affected the new installed capacity of the terminal of the photovoltaic power station. If the installation and grid connection time before December last year is too late, the demand for January this year will be strong. In recent days, the price of photovoltaic silicon chips and other products has rebounded again. If it rebounds sharply, it will continue to affect the release energy of the installed demand of the downstream terminal power station Force and installation cycle. However, in general, the price reduction of silicon materials, silicon chips and other products can give full play to the attribute of "cheap energy" in the photovoltaic power generation industry, and is also more conducive to the output and friendly and healthy development of downstream battery chips and components, inverters and supports, cables and electrical equipment enterprises. "
