Under the joint action of “double carbon”, rising coal prices, staggered peak production, infrastructure growth and other factors, after the Spring Festival, clinker prices in many places such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta rose one after another, with a cumulative range of up to 80 yuan / ton.
Within half a month after the festival, the price of clinker along the river in Anhui has started three rounds of increase. On February 7, the price of clinker along the river in Anhui increased by 30 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton on February 15 and 20 yuan / ton on February 21. At present, the FOB price of clinker of large factories along the river in Anhui is about 440-450 yuan / ton. During this period, eastern Guangdong and central China are also raising clinker prices, with an increase range of about 20-50 yuan / ton.
The cement price in the Yangtze River Delta is the wind vane of the national cement market. Li Yang, an analyst at Minsheng securities, told surging reporters that compared with historical data, the rise time of clinker price this year is ahead of schedule, and the rise expectation of cement enterprises in the future will be stronger.
From the perspective of the rising price of raw materials in Vietnam, Li Yang said that there are three reasons for the rise in the price of raw materials in Vietnam; Second, the peak shifting and maintenance of the cement industry were implemented in an orderly manner, especially in the Yangtze River Delta. Zhejiang and Jiangsu stopped for five days more than last year. Some enterprises began maintenance after the festival, the supply side was restrained and the inventory was low; Third, the rise of coal price promotes the rise of clinker cost, which is then transmitted to the price end. Generally, for every 100 yuan / ton rise in the price of power coal, the cement cost increases by 10 yuan / ton.
strong expectation of cement price rise
Data source: Cement network
In 2021, the cement price fluctuated greatly due to the dual control of energy consumption and the rise of coal price. In September 2021, the average price of cement clinker in China exceeded 600 yuan / ton, a record high. Subsequently, the national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration and other departments successively issued documents and held meetings to stabilize the coal price, and the cement price began to fall.
Li Yang said that in 2022, when the coal price remains high, from the end of February to early May 2022, the cement price will rise in about three rounds driven by demand and cost, about 30 yuan / ton each time. On the demand side, it is expected that the decline of real estate will drag down the demand for cement. Under the background of steady growth, there is a great possibility of infrastructure development, but infrastructure projects are difficult to achieve immediate results. By the first quarter of this year and even the first half of the whole year, the demand of cement market is still under pressure.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) according to the research report, from the peak shifting production plan formulated by all provinces at the beginning of the year, except North China, the number of peak shifting production days in 2022 has increased compared with the average year of 2021. It is expected that the supply side constraints will be greater throughout the year, and the supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance. In 2021, the profit margin of the cement industry decreased by 2.7pct to 15.8% year-on-year, and it is expected that the profit margin of the industry will pick up in 2022.
Li Yang predicted that the increase of production costs such as coal and electricity and emission reduction costs such as energy conservation and consumption reduction is expected to drive the central rise of cement prices. In the first half of this year, prices will rise year-on-year, but sales will decline; In the second half of the year, the growth of infrastructure driven the release of cement demand, and the sales volume is more optimistic than that of last year. The cement price is expected to be flat or slightly lower than that of last year (high base from September to October).
mining biomass resources
According to the benchmark level and benchmark level of energy efficiency in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2021 Edition), the benchmark level of cement clinker energy efficiency is 100kg standard coal / ton and the benchmark level is 117kg standard coal / ton. According to the calculation method of electric heating equivalent, by the end of 2020, about 5% of the capacity in the cement industry with energy efficiency better than the benchmark level and about 24% of the capacity with energy efficiency lower than the benchmark level.
The policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity of cement industry in 2025 should exceed 30%. According to this, the research report predicts that the capacity of 2500 tons / day and below in the cement industry will gradually withdraw in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%. Superimposed carbon tax and emission reduction transformation will further increase the cost pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises.
According to incomplete statistics of China building materials news, 285 cement clinker production lines have been closed, involving a production capacity of 20840900 tons.
On February 11, the national development and Reform Commission issued the guidelines for the implementation of the upgrading system of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, which clearly proposed to promote a large proportion of alternative fuel technology, use domestic waste, solid waste and biomass fuel to replace coal, and reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.
Li Yang said, “in addition to improving technology and reducing energy consumption of production lines, cement enterprises mainly deal with the pressure of carbon reduction by laying out green power industries such as photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation and developing clean energy such as biomass fuels.”
At present, the annual output of straw in China exceeds 1 billion tons, but as one of the main raw materials of biomass energy, its energy utilization rate is only about 3%.
On February 15, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , 600585) the third biomass fuel project was settled in Xuancheng, Anhui Province, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan. Previously, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) two biomass fuel projects have been successfully put into operation.
In addition to using biomass resources as coal alternative fuels, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , 600801) also develop biomass energy and supporting projects to solve the problems of resource disposal such as straw and branches. Taking Zongyang Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) Co., Ltd. ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) subsidiary) as an example, after the normal operation of phase I of the project, it is expected to save about 49000 tons of raw coal and 150000 tons of straw and other biomass resources per year.
Relevant people in the cement industry said that in terms of carbon reduction, the hydrogen content of biomass fuel is not obvious compared with coal. The calorific value of different superimposed biomass is different, and there may be potassium, sodium, chlorine, sulfur and other elements in the fuel. Enterprises should consider its impact on the quality of clinker when promoting biomass fuel. Whether biomass fuel can become an effective path of carbon emission reduction in cement industry depends on its economy and safety.
