The three major A-share indexes collectively closed up today, with the Shanghai index rising 0.93% to close at 3489.15 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.90% to close at 13549.99; The gem index showed the strongest trend, with an increase of 2.82% to close at 2843.87 points. The market turnover was enlarged. Today, it returned to above one trillion yuan, reaching 1.04 trillion yuan, and the number of rising stocks exceeded 3600. The industry sector rose more or fell less, the semiconductor sector broke out, the education, battery and photovoltaic equipment industry led the increase, and the precious metals, mining industry and coal industry led the decline.
Today's news:
1, 2022 No. 1 central document issued the concept of agricultural machinery, seed industry, digital village and other concepts.
2. Economic Daily: lowering the service fee may affect the valuation logic of the platform economy, which does not mean that the prospect of platform enterprises is worrying
3. Ministry of agriculture and rural areas: appropriately raise the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat so that grain farmers will not suffer losses and have money to earn
4. Soaring by more than 70% in three days! "Counting East and counting West" broke out, and the investment opportunity came? These funds become "lucky people"
5. The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration held a meeting to study and deploy further efforts to stabilize coal prices
6. 200000 investors were stunned: the performance of "Youmao" plummeted by more than 30%! Ten billion private placement bosses also fell
7. Economic Daily: to stabilize the real estate market, beware of the rapid rise of the market
8. Cool! Yuan universe hypes the layout of listed companies, technology giants and investment institutions in which players buy land and quilt covers
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at present, as long as the index no longer reaches a new low and maintains the range shock pattern, we can actively pay attention to the market hot spots, grasp the rotation rhythm of the sector, control the position and be cautious to be long. We can focus on the concept of counting from the east to the west, infrastructure, lithium extraction from salt lakes, Rural Revitalization and other sector opportunities.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the current unpredictable external factors have a more obvious impact on the shareholding mentality of investors. The Shanghai index is still in the adjustment since December 13 last year. Investors have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market. It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai stock index is more likely. It is suggested that investors should wait and see in the short term, and the middle line should continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) according to the analysis, at present, although A-Shares face two core contradictions: the faster pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the realization effect of China's steady growth, in the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. First of all, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has basically been fully released, and the current overall valuation of A-Shares is also relatively reasonable. Secondly, the accelerated implementation of countercyclical regulatory policies in real estate, consumption, infrastructure investment and other aspects will help China's growth gradually stabilize. Moreover, according to the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector with significant adjustment in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold. Overall, the main line of stable growth may perform slightly better in the short term, but after the subsequent economic stabilization is realized, growth stocks may return to the main line.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. At present, A-Shares repeatedly shake and grind the bottom, bringing layout opportunities. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved; Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China's growth stabilize gradually; Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to two main investment lines: first, the allocation of varieties of "stable growth" in policies, such as "banking, real estate, building materials and construction"; Second, "food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) " and so on.
Guosheng Securities believes that in the past three months, steady growth has been the most clear main line, and relevant sectors have been generally repaired. From infrastructure, real estate to finance, they have performed well in the past period of time; On the other hand, the decline of high boom track generally reached 20%. After nearly three months of return, the current round of value / growth ratio has already broken through the post epidemic channel, and the strength and sustainability of the recovery are higher than those in the previous rounds. From the perspective of index price comparison, the value growth ratio has been close to the center in the past 10 years, and there is still about 15% space from the center in the past 5 years. After a round of overall repair, we believe that the internal order of steady growth in the next stage is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle. 1) Whether it is the actual tendency of short-term policies or the demand for high-quality development in the medium and long term, new and old infrastructure is the biggest focus of steady growth policies, and the infrastructure chain has the highest certainty; 2) At present, the overall upward driving force of real estate is slightly insufficient, and the front-end sales are depressed. However, with the reduction of the first mortgage interest rate and the down payment ratio in many places, the loose expectation of real estate continues to rise; 3) Banks are expected to track the credit volume and the improvement of credit risk and continue to repair, but the outlook of the manufacturing industry is still low, and the short-term weakness of the real economy may put some pressure on the valuation of bank stocks; 4) After the boom and the completion of the real estate sector, the risk prevention sector is expected to follow the change of this year's delivery cycle. Overall, with steady growth gradually moving towards the cash stage, the internal ranking rate of the sector in the second half of the first quarter is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle.
