Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. In the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased slightly, market sentiment has rebounded, track stocks such as semiconductors have rebounded across the board, while heavyweights continue to fluctuate, and the structural market remains under the seesaw effect of the market. At present, the market is in a “cold spring” situation, and it may not be long to end this embarrassing situation. The key needs the entry of incremental funds and the continuous recovery of mood.
U.S. stocks continued to decline overnight, but the Russian stock market rose 1.59% from a decline of more than 10% in the opening to a red and finally closed up. The strong intraday rise still gave a great boost to the market. Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, there seems to be a easing trend, which may boost market sentiment in the short term.
A shares rebounded from the bottom yesterday, which itself provided the basis for today’s upward trend. The high opening of both cities and the subsequent rise are a positive response to yesterday’s bottom. And the trend is consistent, which also shows that the rebound on that day is relatively firm. From the sectors, we found that today’s track stocks basically rebounded across the board, with semiconductor, new energy and other sectors leading the rise, which still represents the main direction of good growth, sustained performance growth and high prosperity. Thus, it may also indicate that once the growth stocks rebound, these high boom varieties will still be the pioneer and main force.
From the perspective of the cyclical performance of the structural market, from December last year to the middle of this month, the undervalued and stable growth sectors continued to strengthen. However, with the continuous emergence of the effect of policy implementation, the time for stable growth to be realized came at the advent of important meetings. The previously strong infrastructure and other sectors ushered in a decline, while the oversold growth stocks rose one after another. On the one hand, it is an oversold rebound. On the other hand, it is also in place at the valuation clearing stage. With the boost of performance, it still has a certain scarcity. Once the market sentiment picks up, it will still be the focus of capital attention; In addition, from the perspective of the index, the bottom of the Shanghai index on January 28 ushered in the stabilization and recovery, which was the first rebound of the three major indexes. The gem adjusted all the way until January 24. The adjustment cycle is long and the range is large. Under the rebound resonance of the three major indexes, the overall rebound can be expected, and under the relatively sufficient adjustment of the gem, the strength of the rebound is also worth looking forward to.
Therefore, although the current market is experiencing “cold spring”, we are not pessimistic about the market under the support and boost of many parties. On the contrary, with the emergence of the policy bottom and the capital bottom, the current mood also fluctuates and picks up, the foundation for the market to be better remains, and the spring market is still worth looking forward to.
However, it is not easy for A-Shares to get out of the current “cold spring”, and they may need to shake and grind the bottom repeatedly. But only from the disk, at least two basic conditions need to be met. One is the rapid release of trading volume, accounting for more than one trillion; The other is that the Shanghai stock index returns to the annual line. The former is not difficult to achieve. Yesterday, the transaction between the two cities was close to 990 billion, just one step away from the trillion transaction. Whether the annual line can stand is an important reference for the recovery of mood and confidence.
On the whole, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and concerns about overseas geopolitical conflicts continue, and the market risk appetite has not been improved. Under the wait-and-see of incremental funds, there is still a game of stock funds on the floor. Therefore, repetition and style rotation become the main tone, and the profit-making effect is not obvious. At present, we still need to wait patiently and wait for the continued recovery of market sentiment. However, for individual stocks, they can be tracked step by step at present. Under the previous undervaluation and the continuous tracking of the stable growth sector, the oversold high boom growth stocks have highlighted their current cost performance. After continuous adjustment, bargain hunting configuration can also be considered to play a possible staged rebound in the market.
