Today (February 23), after the high opening of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the stock index rose rapidly at the beginning and gradually differentiated. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed a pulse upward pattern, while the Shanghai index once fell, and then followed the rise and strength of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index, showing the strength of the overall A shares.
From the disk, in addition to the adjustment of a few sectors such as precious metals and coal, the industry and concept sectors are almost “red”, and the general rising market reappears. The technology stocks led by semiconductors carry the leading banner, and the sectors such as education, covid-19 drugs, consumer electronics and new energy vehicles perform prominently.
As of press time, in the education sector, Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) “20cm” limit, Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Shanghai Xinnanyang Only Education & Technology Co.Ltd(600661) , China Hi-Tech Group Co.Ltd(600730) limit, Suzhou Kingswood Education Technology Co.Ltd(300192) , Sansheng Intellectual Education Technology Co.Ltd(300282) , Beijing Kaiwen Education Technology Co.Ltd(002659) and other increases were ahead. In addition, among covid-19 drug sectors, Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) , Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) , Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603811) and other limits rose, while Xilong Scientific Co.Ltd(002584) , Beijing Science Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300485) , Phichem Corporation(300398) , Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) , Xinxiang Tuoxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(301089) and other increases were higher. It is worth noting that Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) has raised the limit of “20cm” for three consecutive trading days recently.
According to the performance of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the speed of style switching may be accelerated in the near future, and the adjustment speed of weighted varieties with large increase in the early stage and high valuation may be improved. In terms of operation, investors can maintain medium and low positions, choose hot varieties with good growth for short-term trading, and choose the opportunity to increase their positions after the market leaves the downward channel.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] education
Wanlian securities mentioned that the focus of education is on the norms of after-school training and vocational education, and advocates that heroes are not only based on achievements. The Ministry of education proposed to standardize the management of non subject after-school training and moderately expand the enrollment scale of secondary and higher vocational colleges in some fields. It is suggested to pay attention to the education companies that promote the development of educational technology, deeply cultivate the sub track of quality education and vocational education.
Previously, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) said that private higher education will benefit from the process of China’s vocational education reform for a long time. Compared with Germany, there are many challenges in China’s vocational education reform, including the need to further clarify the positioning of vocational education, the need to gradually narrow the employment and income gap between vocational education and ordinary graduates, the rapid change of industrial structure puts forward more requirements for the professional construction capacity of vocational education, and the relatively insufficient investment of private capital in higher education, Enterprises have weak motivation to participate in school enterprise cooperation. The above factors lead to the weak attraction of vocational education, and the improvement of relevant factors will be a long-term process. In the process of China’s vocational education reform, we believe that private higher education companies can gain advantages in the process of in-service education reform through their market demand-oriented school running policy and flexible school running mechanism, and help to explore the path of vocational education reform suitable for China’s national conditions.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that at the current time point, we recommend two main lines: (1) Vocational Education: Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) , Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) ; (2) Higher education: at present, some higher education stocks 22pe have fallen below 10 times, mainly due to: 1) higher education companies are cautious about M & A expectations, partly due to the current upside down valuation of the primary and secondary markets; 2) At present, most regions have not yet issued detailed rules for the selection of business and non business, and the market is worried about the policy risk of higher education stocks; 3) Concerns about future price increases and the ceiling of net interest rates. We believe that, on the one hand, the performance of higher education sector continues to be stable. On the other hand, the state accelerates the implementation of vocational undergraduate work, and private undergraduate schools are expected to benefit. We continue to recommend China Education Holdings, hope education, Gaoxin education group, Zhonghui education, China Science and technology training, etc. []
[Topic 2] covid-19 drugs
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that with the approval of Pfizer specific drugs, the normalization of the epidemic situation in China will become a trend. Paxlovid’s emergency approval in China shows the feasibility of national recognition of oral small molecule drugs for covid-19, and provides a drug treatment solution for covid-19 epidemic in China. Paxlovid’s clinical data show that its efficacy is superior. Starting paxlovid treatment within 5 days after the onset of symptoms (twice a day for 5 consecutive days) can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. We believe that the approval of paxlovid marks the normalization of the epidemic in China, and “vaccine + specific drug” is expected to finally defeat covid-19.
In the long run, China’s prevention and control policies are expected to be relaxed. At present, overseas countries have maintained an open attitude towards the epidemic. Considering that the main active component of paxlovid has the same antiviral effect on mutant strains in vitro and has curative effect on Omicron and other mutant strains, paxlovid can be taken orally as a small molecule drug, and the treatment method is convenient and controllable. We believe that China’s prevention and control policy is expected to be gradually relaxed under the premise of order, and opening the door to the country will be the trend in the long run.
The agency further analyzed that the localization of specific drugs is worth looking forward to, and the changes of related industries are worth paying attention to. On the one hand, covid-19 specific drugs have huge market prospects in China. Paxlovid has been approved or authorized for emergency use in more than 10 countries around the world, and the production capacity can not meet all the markets. Moreover, covid-19 drugs are of strategic importance. It is worth looking forward to the localization of covid-19 specific drugs, and the small molecule pipeline under research is expected to accelerate its listing through emergency approval; Chinese enterprises with R & D capability and API integration will benefit. The approval of oral covid-19 specific drugs is expected to accelerate the R & D of small molecule specific drugs in China. On the other hand, Pfizer’s paxlovid needs a large number of APIs such as carbonic anhydride, which is good for Chinese api companies, such as Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) . Some Chinese cdmo enterprises have obtained relevant production orders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . It is expected that with the further expansion of production capacity, relevant cdmo enterprises are still expected to benefit.
AVIC Securities said that from the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation.
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[Theme 3] consumer electronics
Minsheng Securities said that for a long time, electronics has been an important institutional allocation sector. In the early stage, the electronics sector was dominated by consumer electronics, and apple chain company bloomed. Then, under the background of Huawei incident and shortage tide, semiconductor companies started domestic substitution and relay consumer electronics to become the main investment line. Although the electronic fluctuation is large, it is still a long bull sector.
Looking forward to the future industrial trend and investment main line, we believe that: 1) there is still considerable room for domestic substitution of semiconductors. At present, China’s semiconductors have made zero breakthroughs in different products and fields, and the trend of domestic comprehensive breakthrough has taken shape. 2) Focus on the investment main line driven by new products and new markets. At present, smart machines have entered the stock market, and traditional consumer electronics companies have started transformation one after another; In contrast, the new opportunities driven by new markets such as intelligent electric vehicles, VR / AR, server cloud computing and IOT wearable are more worth grasping.
According to the statistics of Gartner, the global semiconductor market space reached $474.1 billion in 2021. Mobile phones and PCs are still important downstream markets, but the growth rate slows down. In terms of growth, the growth rate of automobile is the fastest, up to 25.3%; Followed by IOT, with a growth rate of 18.7%. In addition, AR / VR is also maturing step by step; Looking forward to 2022, the server demand will also accelerate after the introduction of ddr5. Many new products and new markets will drive the long-term growth of the electronic sector.
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that it believes that traditional consumer electronics have gradually entered a mature stage and the market has entered a saturation stage. Traditional consumer electronics actively explore new development directions, such as photovoltaic, VR / AR, automotive electronics, etc. in the field of automotive electronics, with the promotion of automotive intelligence, electrification and carbon neutralization policies, smart cars will usher in a period of rapid growth. Tesla, the leader of electric vehicles, reduces the difficulty of building cars through vertical integration, breaks through the barriers between the automotive industry and the electronics industry, and enables traditional consumer electronics enterprises to accelerate the layout of new energy vehicle tracks and develop new automotive electronics businesses. In addition, smart phone giants such as apple, Xiaomi and Huawei have joined the automotive industry, driving the electronic parts companies in the industrial chain to expand their automotive business, and the automotive electronics field will usher in a historic development opportunity. []
[theme 4] new energy vehicles
Anxin Securities pointed out that it is expected that the traditional vehicle and new energy vehicle industries will improve in an all-round way in 2022. In terms of new energy vehicles, due to the price increase of some models caused by the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, orders are expected to be slightly affected in the short term. With the recovery of price acceptance of new energy vehicles after the festival, combined with the continued strong terminal demand and abundant unsold orders, the annual sales volume is expected to maintain a high growth. In terms of traditional cars, with the continuous improvement of chip shortage, the orders stored in the early stage are expected to speed up delivery; With the launch of new products by auto enterprises, the demand will be released, and the traditional passenger cars are expected to be significantly improved in 2022.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that it is optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand. It is expected that car enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by retaining orders, time limited price protection, and comprehensive adjustment of price and equity, so as to drive the steady release of new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid or market segments with strong certainty of sales growth, it is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the leading factors affecting the climbing.
The agency further pointed out that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e is expected to be 5-5.5 million, and it is optimistic about car companies with strong model product cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear and clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
Ping An securities mentioned that in January, the outlook of new energy vehicles continued, and new energy vehicles ushered in the tide of price rise. From the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January announced by some new energy vehicle enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January maintained a year-on-year high growth, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January is expected to reach about 450000 units. Due to the decline in subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, some car companies have raised the price of new energy vehicles, with a price increase range of about thousands of yuan. Car companies are relatively cautious in raising prices. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in January may be partially overdrawn, and the demand in subsequent months. The new energy vehicle market in February and March remains to be observed, but in the long run, new energy vehicles will still maintain a high outlook, It is expected to achieve a 50% growth rate in 2022. []
