After a month, A-Shares finally reappeared "trillion turnover".
On February 23, A-Shares ushered in a general rise, and the gem rose sharply, with an increase of more than 2.8%. The rise of track stocks is even more eye-catching. Semiconductor, lithium battery and other sectors are even more elated. Under the oversold market squeezed by the early valuation, the energy storage rebounded.
According to the analysis of a number of fund companies, on the one hand, this is because the rebound opportunities and industry fundamentals brought by the sector rotation are better. On the other hand, the geopolitical risk weakens the expectation of overseas interest rate hikes and superimposes the previous oversold accumulation, which provides support for the rebound.
As for the semiconductor sector leading the rise today, the fund company believes that after a period of bottom consolidation, some market participants believe that the space for the track to continue to explore is limited, the valuation of leading enterprises is reasonable, and there is a subjective willingness to participate in short-term.
Some public offerings also believe that, in addition to performance factors, the current rebound in the growth sector is more "expected" factors, and the establishment of the trend needs to be observed. It is not recommended to blindly pursue the rise, and the short-term market may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to find varieties with high cost performance and poor expectations for investment.
What are the reasons for the transaction of trillion and why do track stocks rebound strongly?
On February 23, the three major A-share indexes collectively rose. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3489.15 points, up 0.93%; Shenzhen composite index reported 13549.99 points, up 1.90%; Gem index reported 2843.87 points, up 2.82%; The Kechuang 50 index rose 3.98% to 1231.08.
Among CITIC's primary industries, electronics, national defense and military industry and automobile led the increase, rising by 4.24%, 3.56% and 3.18% respectively; Petroleum and petrochemical industry, coal industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery decreased by 1.03%, 1.32% and 1.60% respectively. The market turnover was 1042.091 billion yuan, breaking the trillion mark, and continued to increase in volume compared with the previous trading day.
Under the background of overseas interest rate hikes, geographical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and different degrees of exploration in the US and European markets overnight, A-share growth stocks can "be alone" and reach trillion turnover again. What is the reason behind it?
"The short-term reason for the strong rebound in the market today is that the risks of the Fed's interest rate hike and the situation in Wudong in the early stage are excessively reflected in a shares, and the two factors may be mutually exclusive. If the dispute spreads, the range and probability of interest rate hike will be restrained." Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, explained that in this context, the result of linear superposition of all external adverse factors in the early market needs to be corrected.
For the Fed's interest rate hike, Zhongrong Fund believes that the impact is short-term. "The A-share market is more 'self dominated'. With the gradual emergence of the effect of the steady growth policy, the market sentiment will also pick up." Zhongrong Fund said.
In addition to the above factors, "the market's confidence in steady growth continues to increase, superimposing the previous oversold accumulation, which provides support for the rebound, and the continuous force of policies also strengthens the market's confidence in the realization effect of steady growth." Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said.
For today's sharp rise in track stocks, Boshi fund analysis believes that this is because the early adjustment of relevant sectors is relatively sufficient and the valuation gradually drops; Its industry fundamentals are still good. Downstream applications represented by new energy, automobile and digital communication, as well as the localization of equipment and materials, the industry boom is still very high, so there has been a relatively large rebound.
According to the analysis of TEDA Manulife fund, on the one hand, this is due to the rebound opportunities and the improvement of industry fundamentals brought by the rotation of sectors such as semiconductors, on the other hand, geopolitical risks weaken the expectation of overseas interest rate hikes.
The market is worried that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will bring risks to the economic repair of the United States and Europe through the cross-border industrial chain. Overseas swap traders have reduced their bets on the future interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve. The overnight swap index shows that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March is 19%, "compared with 56% a week ago." TEDA Manulife Fund said.
TEDA Manulife fund also said that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows the U.S. economy, the interest rate market pricing will continue to reduce the number of interest rate increases in 2022, which will bring a longer "monetary easing" time window for China than expected. Benefiting from the weakening of bad liquidity, growth stocks with high elasticity performed best.
the sharp rise of semiconductors is the most eye-catching. How to treat the internal and external factors?
Among the track stocks rising across the board today, semiconductor is the brightest "cub". According to the analysis of TEDA Manulife fund, since the high point of last year, semiconductors have decreased by more than 25%. Some time ago, other industries and individual stocks have ushered in rebound opportunities, and semiconductors are slightly absent. After a period of bottom consolidation, some market participants believe that there is limited space for the track to continue to explore, the valuation of leading enterprises is reasonable, and there is a subjective willingness to participate in the short-term.
According to the recently released performance express, a number of A-share semiconductor companies also performed well. Nearly 80% of the companies' net profit in 2021 increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the net profit of 7 companies more than doubled year-on-year. In terms of price increase logic, Infineon released a 15-20% increase in the price of IGBT products. "For other segments, such as equipment and materials, due to the high valuation flexibility, it is also easy to be favored by funds." TEDA Manulife Fund said.
From the perspective of the prosperity of semiconductor and chip sectors, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund expects that the absolute value level of its overall performance growth in 2022 and the disposal position are still in a high position. "In addition, the gap between supply and demand in the industry still exists, and it will continue to benefit from the release of engineer dividends and the acceleration of domestic substitution for a long time, so it is still worthy of special attention."
"Benefiting from the stimulation of domestic substitution, the current domestic demand of the semiconductor industry is still relatively strong, and there is still much room for growth in the long run." Boshi Fund said.
In the company's view, the localization of semiconductor equipment and materials will be one of the important investment lines in the next 1-1.5 years. From the perspective of different downstream application fields, the company suggests that investors focus on automotive electrification & Intelligence and its upstream automotive semiconductor target, and the certainty of performance growth is relatively higher.
trend establishment remains to be observed
Looking back, TEDA Manulife Fund believes that in addition to performance factors, the current rebound in the growth sector is more "expected" factors, and the establishment of the trend needs to be observed. It is not recommended to blindly pursue the rise.
Considering the upcoming "two sessions" in two weeks, the company said that the defensive sector is a safer choice.
For geopolitical tensions, Zhongrong Fund believes that there is still uncertainty. The historical law shows that unless a wide-scale conflict breaks out, the impact of regional local tension is often impulsive and short-term. The change of market style brought by pure risk preference is limited, but because Russia is a large resource exporter, the sanctions of major developed economies may lead to the contraction of the supply of crude oil, natural gas, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and metals, which will affect the supply and demand pattern of some industrial chains. This change generally lasts for a long time.
However, the company is not pessimistic about China's economy and believes that there is no systemic risk in the A-share market under the stable growth policy and loose monetary environment. Today's rebound is a correction to the pessimistic market environment some time ago. "However, the short-term market may continue to fluctuate. It is suggested to find varieties with high cost performance and poor expectations for investment."
According to Boshi fund, under the background of "stable growth", the probability of A-Shares will continue to fluctuate, the structural market will continue, and the short-term certainty of the large infrastructure sector benefiting from policy support is relatively higher, which will be more favored by funds and can still be paid appropriate attention.
Xie Yi is still optimistic about the whole year. He believes that it is the fundamentals of China's economy that drive China's stock market, and at present, it is significantly better than other markets horizontally.
"At the same time. From the perspective of time dimension, the economic cycle is also at its bottom, and the probability of subsequent recovery is much greater than that of continuous decline. Although the process will always be disturbed by external factors, the overall upward trend is still the main theme." Therefore, he suggested that investors can remain optimistic.
With the approach of the national two sessions in March, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund expects that the steady growth policy of industry and service industry will be further overweight, which will help the market expectation to further stabilize. With the enhanced signal of broad credit and stable growth, interest rates will return to the upward direction, and risk appetite will be repaired.
"At the same time, the Fed's interest rate increase window is approaching, and investor sentiment will also tend to stabilize, which will also be conducive to the recovery of the market." The company said.
