Minsheng securities has called on the capital market to pay full attention to steady growth in the past quarter. The macro, strategy and industry of Minsheng securities have held joint meetings for many times to promote steady growth clues, steady growth and look at people's livelihood.
At the end of last year, we were firmly optimistic about the main line of China's stable growth policy. When looking at the macro-economy of 2022 in early December, we adopted "policy dislocation, domestic demand reversal" as the title of the report, which is to directly express our core judgment on the macro-economy of 2022.
The so-called policy dislocation means that China's policy is loose, overseas policy is tightened, and the policy directions of China and the United States are contrary. Corresponding to the economy, the most clear main line in 2022 is the return of domestic demand expansion.
Since the beginning of the year, there have been many discussions on steady growth in the market, which once doubted the strength, rhythm and effect of the policy of steady growth. We have always adhered to three judgments:
First, the effect of steady growth will eventually appear. In other words, broad money will eventually move towards broad credit. And the power of this round of wide credit first comes from infrastructure Zhang, and then gradually switch to real estate. In addition, an important credit channel in 2022 is on balance sheet credit.
Second, steady growth was the first to see a large amount of infrastructure data. We calculate the infrastructure investment in the first quarter, which is neither short of funds nor projects. In the first quarter, the capital inside and outside the capital construction budget were relatively abundant. The capital in the budget mainly came from special bonds. Since the issuance of enterprise credit and bonds, the capital outside the budget has been used. The preparation of infrastructure projects in the first quarter is also relatively sufficient, so there is no need to worry too much about the implementation progress of infrastructure projects.
Third, the expectation of loose real estate policy in the future is optimistic. The impact of real estate on China's economy can not be completely replaced by other departments, and the current real estate data is still in the process of downward exploration. We are optimistic about further easing of real estate policies in the future until the growth rate of real estate data stabilizes.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; The Fed raised interest rates at a faster pace than expected; The policy force exceeded expectations.
