Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. Last week (02.14-02.18, the same below), the price of pork fell to 19.76 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig grain fell to 4.52, the price of chicken fell slightly, the price of beef and mutton rose, and the price of vegetables and fruits fell. 2) Industry. Last week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with production capacity was flat or downward, the price of rebar fell, and the inventory continued to accumulate; Copper prices fell and inventories fell. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail has rebounded significantly, and the film box office revenue and film viewers have decreased significantly after the festival. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities rebounded on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) Stock market. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3490.76 points, up 0.80% week on week; The gem index closed at 2826.81, up 2.93% mom. In terms of industry sectors, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology led the rise, while non bank finance, mining and utilities led the decline. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds generally rose, the term interest rate spread of interest rate bonds narrowed, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States widened. On February 18, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 1.98%, 2.80%, 2.02% and 3.01% respectively, with changes of 6BP, 1bp, 5bp and -0.2bp on a weekly basis; The term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 82bp and 100bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by - 5bp and - 5bp respectively; The interest rate difference between China and the United States closed at 88bp and widened by 1bp. 3) Commodities. Last week, commodity prices fell, rebar, thermal coal, PTA, cathode copper, soybean meal and white granulated sugar futures prices fell, coke and soybean oil futures prices rose, cement price index fell, Nanhua metal index fell, and ine crude oil futures prices continued to rise to close at 564.60 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policies. 1) Monetary policy. Last week, a total of 50 billion yuan was invested in reverse repo on the open market, 300 billion yuan was invested in reverse repo when it expired, 300 billion yuan was invested in MLF, 200 billion yuan was recovered by MLF, and 150 billion yuan was recovered in the broad open market in the whole week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 2.10% and 2.09% respectively. In March, the yield of Shibor and 1y interbank certificates of deposit closed at 2.40% and 2.47% respectively. 2) Policy developments. In January 2022, CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month. PPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.2% month on month.
Core view. 1) Car sales picked up and the margin of real estate relaxed. From the perspective of inflation, the fall of seasonal demand superimposed on the excess supply of pork and the mismatch of supply and demand pattern. Last week, the price of pork continued to fall and the price ratio of pig to grain continued to fall. From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises with various capacity is the same as or down from last week, and the operating rate of small-scale coking enterprises continues to turn against super and medium-sized coking enterprises; Rebar prices fell slightly and inventories continued to accumulate. In terms of demand, auto wholesale and retail rebounded sharply year-on-year, and film box office revenue and person times fell after the festival; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose month on month, the transaction area of land in 100 cities rebounded month on month, and the real estate demand continued to improve. Recently, Heze, Shandong, Chongqing, Ganzhou, Jiangxi and other places have reduced the down payment ratio of housing loans, Guangzhou and other places have also reduced the loan interest rate of the first house, and the demand side policy of the real estate industry is now loose. 2) CPI fell year-on-year due to food, and the scissors difference between PPI and CPI converged. From the perspective of CPI, the CPI in January rose by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Due to the seasonal demand drop and the excess supply of pork, the pork fell by 4.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the fresh vegetable fell by 14.7 percentage points from the previous month, which together led to a sharp drop of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, thus increasing the negative pulling effect on the CPI year-on-year. From the perspective of PPI, the PPI in January rose by 9.1% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Benefiting from the strong implementation of policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the prices of coal and steel fell, driving the PPI down year-on-year. From the perspective of ppi-cpi scissors difference, it has shown a convergence trend for three consecutive months, which is conducive to the profit recovery of middle and downstream industries.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
