Crude oil: prices fluctuated and rose. Early in the week, investors weighed the possible impact of the decline in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, the U.S. – Iran negotiations and the situation in Eastern Europe on oil prices. At the same time, the EIA expected that the supply shortage would intensify, the prospect of the situation in Russia and Ukraine was uncertain, and the crude oil price rose sharply. Later in the week: EIA crude oil inventory increased, but investors were worried about the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, potential US and European sanctions or exacerbate the tension of energy supply. At the same time, Cushing inventory decreased and us fuel demand increased, and crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 94.86 (+ 2.54) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 93.56 (+ 2.71) USD / barrel.
PX: callback after market rise. Crude oil prices rose, and the cost side support was relatively strong. On the supply side, the overall supply rose by a narrow margin, the early maintenance device in Northeast China was restarted, and the market commencement increased as a whole. On the demand side, a 1.2 million T / a PTA plant in East China was shut down for two days and a 650000 T / a plant was shut down. The commencement fell due to the maintenance of large plants in Ningbo last week. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 1084.86 (+ 0.51) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 390.76 (- 19.66) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 184.86 (- 25.00) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 77.68% (+ 0.79pct).
PTA: market highs fall. At the supply side, the PTA start-up load is adjusted due to the short shutdown of the device, but the overall supply is still relatively high. On the demand side, the start-up of downstream polyester plants continued to increase. On the premise of sufficient goods before the festival, polyester raw materials just need to be purchased, superimposed with the outbreak of epidemic in some areas, the demand side is weak as a whole. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 5552.14 (- 156.43) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -108.29 (- 69.51) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 70.50% (- 4.10pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 229500 (+ 19000) tons.
MEG: prices fell significantly. The price of crude oil fluctuated and rose, the international price of naphtha rose, the price of thermal coal corrected slightly, and the cost side support was relatively stable. On the supply side, one unit in North China was restarted and one unit in Northwest China was shut down during the week. The supply decreased compared with last week, and the port continued to accumulate storage. On the demand side, the terminal weaving industry is gradually accelerating the pace of resumption, but the overall commencement is still low, and it will take time for complete recovery. The overall production and sales of the polyester industry are light, and the favorable support on the demand side is limited. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 5090.00 (+ 242.86) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 877800 (+ 82400) tons, and the operating rate is 70.90% (- 0.70pct).
Polyester filament: the market develops first and then suppresses. The international oil price has soared, but the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not strong, and the demand performance is weak. Polyester filament enterprises are more stable and wait-and-see, a small number of quotations have been raised, and the local focus of the market has shifted upward. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy8053 57 (+ 3.57) yuan / ton, fdy8485 71 (+ 335.71) yuan / ton and dty9707 14 (+ 7.14) yuan / ton, the average profit per ton of the industry is POY + 264.24 (+ 146.46) yuan / ton, FDY + 285.58 (+ 366.91) yuan / ton and DTY + 498.92 (+ 148.83) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy26.25 yuan / ton respectively 80 (+ 2.30) days, fdy29 50 (+ 3.00) days and dty30 70 (+ 2.20) days, with an operating rate of 86.80% (+ 3.70pct).
Weaving: start work and recover slowly. The downstream has gradually returned to work. However, due to the large number of workers returning from other places, the process of returning to work is slow, and there are few overseas orders after the festival. For the time being, it is mainly to deliver pre Festival orders or production inventory. Superimposed on the recent high shock in the polyester filament market, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly consuming finished product inventory. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 49.94% (+ 18.84pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.10 (- 0.60) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fell broadly. On the supply side, the devices of short fiber enterprises such as Ningbo Huaxing, Hubei Lvyu and Jiangyin Huahong were warmed up and restarted this week, and the output was higher than that of last week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber this week is general. Most staple fiber enterprises return to work and production, but the downstream yarn enterprises recover slowly, the new orders of yarn enterprises are insufficient, and there is resistance to the current staple fiber price. Therefore, they are mostly delisted and wait-and-see, and just need to purchase. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 7693.33 (- 206.67) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 191.08 (+ 6.93) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 1.40 (+ 0.60) days, and the operating rate is 80.90% (+ 7.50pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the demand is relatively light. On the supply side, after the festival, the supply circulation of some manufacturers of polyester bottles and chips is relatively loose. After the 600000 T / a unit in the southwest is successfully put into operation, the start-up is improved and the market supply is gradually increased. On the demand side, there is no positive boost for the time being. As most of the supply sources of major beverage manufacturers have been locked up years ago, some downstream and traders still have a small amount of inventory, manufacturers have no replenishment demand for the time being, the overall construction of some sheet and other enterprises is still low, and the demand in the domestic trade market is light. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 8050.00 (- 185.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 560.55 (+ 20.83) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 91.30% (+ 0.00pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to February 18, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 189.62%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the CSI 300 index increased by 20.95%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
