From the second half of last year to this year, the policy of stabilizing real estate has been continuously introduced. With reference to media reports, the amount, mortgage interest rate, down payment ratio and lending have been relaxed. On February 21, the media widely reported that the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou has been reduced, which once again shows the policy attitude of stabilizing real estate.
Reiterate the view that we will continue to be optimistic about the bank market, and the steady growth and steady real estate market will continue. In the early stage, the market is expected to improve the strength of stable growth and stable real estate, and the effectiveness is still pessimistic. The policy attitude of stable growth and stable real estate is clear and firm, and there is still room and power. Relevant policies and measures are constantly strengthened and implemented, and will gradually promote the improvement of economic and real estate data and expectations. Policy force, effectiveness and data improvement will become the catalyst for bank stocks. Compared with other stable growth varieties, the bank’s valuation is lower, and the early increase is also relatively limited. The policy strength and effectiveness expectation will affect the bank’s performance, and the effectiveness influence may be stronger. Strengthening the strength will bring about the improvement of effectiveness expectation and promote greater upward space for the industry in the future.
In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to regional banks with rapid performance growth, such as Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , and continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . If the market is under pressure as a whole, pay attention to large banks and undervalued varieties.
The mortgage interest rate continued to decline, the loan was accelerated, and the amount was abundant.
On February 21, the securities times, the financial Associated Press and other media reported that a number of banks lowered the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou, and mentioned that Suzhou and other places also lowered the mortgage interest rate, and the loan was accelerated with sufficient amount. In January this year and December last year, the media also reported the reduction of housing loan interest rate. When the five-year LPR was reduced in January this year, the financial Associated Press reported that the housing loan interest rate in some cities was reduced, and the reduction range of the newly issued part was more than that of the LPR. “According to the mainstream mortgage interest rate data of key cities of the shell Research Institute, in January 2022, the interest rate of the first set of mainstream mortgages in 103 key cities monitored was 5.56%, and the interest rate of the second set of mainstream mortgages was 5.84%, both of which were 8 basis points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the mainstream mortgage interest rate of 59 cities decreased month on month, an increase of 19 compared with the previous month, and the mortgage interest rate of key cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou decreased.” ； Referring to the research of the shell Research Institute, since the fourth quarter of last year, the housing loan environment in key cities has continued to improve.
The down payment ratio may also be loose.
While the mortgage interest rate is down, the down payment ratio is also loose. According to the first financial report: Chongqing and some cities in Jiangxi, Shandong and other provinces reduced the down payment ratio of the first mortgage from 30% to 20%, and pointed out that although many small and medium-sized cities without “purchase restriction” did not achieve a comprehensive reduction, 20% down payment is not uncommon in practice.
With the decline of mortgage interest rate and the improvement of sales or margin, it is conducive to bank credit demand and asset quality. The decline of mortgage interest rate will have a positive impact on the sales or sustainable development, which is not only conducive to improving the credit demand, but also conducive to the quality of bank assets. The improvement of sales will ensure the value of collateral such as development loans and significantly reduce the final loss of banks.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
