\u3000\u3000 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352)
Event: Recently, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the attributable net profit of 4.2-4.4 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 40% – 43%; Deduction of non net profit was 1.78 billion-1.93 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 69% – 71%, mainly due to Q2 disposal of three logistics real estate investment income (850 million yuan) and government subsidies. Among them, the net profit of 21q4 in a single quarter is expected to be 2.4-2.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.45-1.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%, in line with expectations.
In addition, the company announced the operating data of January 2022: the total revenue in January was 25.113 billion yuan, yoy + 53.27%. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 17.28 billion yuan, yoy + 14.23%; 989 million pieces of business completed, yoy + 10.01%; Single ticket income is 17.47 yuan, yoy + 3.80%; Affected by the related business income of the merged Kerry Logistics, the supply chain business realized a revenue of 7.833 billion yuan, yoy + 522.66%.
Q4 performance increased year-on-year and month on month: the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to decline by 40% – 43% year-on-year in 2021, which is affected by many factors, such as the expansion of production capacity in 21q1, the increase of network resource investment, the high increase of low gross profit products, the increase of labor cost under the epidemic and the cancellation of relevant anti epidemic tax relief. Quarterly, the non net profit deducted from Q1, Q2 and Q3 was -1.134 billion yuan, 657 million yuan and 810 million yuan, which continued to improve month on month. The net profit deducted from Q4 is expected to be 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% – 56% and a month on month increase of 79% – 98%, which is mainly due to the company’s proactive strategic balance in combination with the improvement of industrial policies, continuous improvement of product stratification, formulation of targeted market strategies, optimization of product structure and improvement of product pricing ability. At the same time, the integration of four networks, cost control, intermediate transfer automation equipment upgrading and other measures have gradually improved the utilization rate of site and transport capacity resources and operation efficiency, so as to improve the overall efficiency. Secondly, 21q4 company merged Kerry Logistics to contribute to its performance, and its supply chain and international business revenue (including Kerry Logistics consolidated statement) continued to rise. The revenue in October, November and December was 8.75 billion yuan, 9.6 billion yuan and 9.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 220%, 336% and 411%, and the overall revenue of Q4 reached 27.467 billion yuan. It can be seen that from the beginning of 21q2, the company continued to consolidate its core competitiveness and diversified layout, and its performance gradually ushered in repair.
Single ticket revenue stopped falling and recovered: benefiting from the inflection point of policy supervision, the industry price war has temporarily come to an end, and the single ticket price of head enterprises has stabilized and turned up obviously. The single ticket revenue of the company was 15.92 yuan, 15.82 yuan, 16.43 yuan and 17.47 yuan respectively in October, November, December and January of 22, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.9%, + 1.41%, + 0.43% and + 3.8%, The unit price basically stopped falling and recovered. It is expected that with the continuous improvement of online shopping penetration and the rise of new platforms such as live delivery and fresh e-commerce, the demand for express delivery will still maintain a stable growth. Relying on the advantages of timeliness, scale and synergy, the company’s product pricing ability may be enhanced, and the single ticket price is expected to continue to increase.
Profit forecast: under strict policy supervision, the price war has eased, and the industry has changed from “price war” to “service war”. On the basis of the inherent advantages of the company’s direct operation mode, through the coordination of resources such as four networks financing, aviation, venue and transportation capacity, we continue to optimize the operation mode of various products, improve the utilization rate of production capacity, consolidate the existing competitive advantage, and have great flexibility in performance repair. It is estimated that in 2022 and 2023, the net profit will be 6.8 billion yuan and 8.8 billion yuan, yoy respectively + 60% and + 29%, and the EPS will be 1.39 yuan and 1.79 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the share price of a is 45 times and 34 times respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, and the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected
