\u3000\u3000 Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) (688626)
Event: the company issued a performance express. In 2021, the revenue was 523 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.64%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.79%, slightly lower than expected. Among them, in 2021q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 172 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.43%.
The possible reasons for the company’s lower than expected performance and negative growth in the fourth quarter may be mainly due to the impact of the epidemic: 1) firstly, due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic in the third quarter and the fourth quarter in Henan, the company’s normal business activities have been significantly affected. At the same time, as the main platform for the company’s annual project investment, the International Rehabilitation Equipment Expo was held from 8-9 in previous years, It was postponed until early December last year; It is expected to have a negative impact on the company’s order acquisition and further drag down the company’s revenue growth. 2) Secondly, the expansion of the company’s personnel and relatively rigid expenses affect the company’s profit margin; According to the company’s 2021 semi annual report, by the end of the first half of the year, the number of employees of the company had increased by 13.6% compared with the beginning of 2021, reaching 1487, and the personnel investment continued to expand; Meanwhile, as of the first three quarters of 2021, the company’s sales expenses / management expenses / R & D expenses increased by 37.99% / 21.45% / 30.05% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, and the increase of expenses significantly exceeded the growth of revenue in the same period.
In 2022q1, Henan was impacted by the epidemic again, and Anyang City, where the company is located, became the epicenter of the epidemic, which is expected to drag down the performance of the first quarter of 2022: according to the 17th press conference on covid-19 pneumonia epidemic prevention and control held by Anyang epidemic prevention and control headquarters on January 30, as of 24:00 on January 29, 468 confirmed cases had been reported in this round of epidemic, including 444 cases in Tangyin county, There were 19 cases in Wenfeng District, 2 cases in Hua county, 2 cases in Neihuang County and 1 case in Anyang County.
Investment suggestion: the company’s performance has been greatly impacted by the epidemic and other factors in the short term. According to the company’s announcement and possible impact, we lowered the company’s profit forecast and predicted that the company’s earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.26, 1.51 and 2.12 yuan respectively (1.36, 1.70 and 2.33 yuan before adjustment). However, from the perspective of policy, the state’s support for the rehabilitation industry is still increasing. The national plan for the development of aging undertakings and elderly care service system in the 14th five year plan has also been released recently, which is expected to significantly promote the in-depth development of the rehabilitation industry. We temporarily maintain the company’s “buy-b” rating.
Risk tips: increased fluctuations in the capital market, macroeconomic downturn, policy risks, etc.
