\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) (002415)
Event: on the evening of February 22, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 81.301 billion yuan, an increase of 28.03% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 16.784 billion yuan, an increase of 25.39% over the same period of last year, and the performance express revenue exceeded the expectation.
With strong performance toughness, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue and profit in a single quarter is expected to bottom out, and the data of revenue and profit in a single quarter in 2022 is expected to rise month on month. In 2021, the company's revenue from single Q1 to single Q4 increased by 48.35% / 34.17% / 22.41% / 21.83% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth ratio of net profit attributable to parent company in the same period was 44.96% / 37.86% / 17.54% / 17.29%, showing an obvious trend of gradual month on month decline. However, under the influence of global macro disturbance, the impact of epidemic and the forward shift of orders under the background that the tight supply chain in the first half of 2021 gave birth to the hoarding of distributors, In 2021, Q4 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are basically the same, and the level of single Q3 in 2021 shows the company's strong performance toughness (the quarter with the highest proportion of revenue and profit in previous years is the fourth quarter), which is expected to boost the market for the whole year of 2022, In particular, the performance confidence of Q1 in 2022 with the greatest year-on-year growth pressure (there has been an obvious imbalance between supply and demand in Q1 in 2021, resulting in a year-on-year high growth rate of 48.35% of revenue in the current quarter). The performance growth rate in a single quarter is expected to bottom out, and the growth rate in a single quarter can continue to rise in the future.
Equity incentive maintains the income requirements of 15% CAGR and 20% roe, escorts the long-term steady growth, "decoupling" security, and the valuation system is expected to rise steadily. On October 7, 2021, the company issued a new phase of equity incentive, covering 23.32% of the number of employees. The core talents are bound through a complete unlocking cycle of up to five years. The conditions of this restricted stock incentive plan are basically consistent with those of the company's 2018 restricted stock incentive plan (CAGR is adjusted from 20% to 15%), It also shows the consistent steady style of the company's management in the long-term development. As the company expands its product portfolio through multi-dimensional sensing technology along the wavelength of the spectrum, we believe that the innovative business is expected to rebuild a Haikang. At the same time, the continuous deepening of EBG business will continue to bring the market stereotype of the company and the traditional security hardware company and the comprehensive "decoupling" of the valuation system. The revenue growth rate of 28.03% in 2021 exceeded the incentive target and helped to achieve the long-term vision.
Maintain the "buy" rating. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 81.183 billion yuan, 97.551 billion yuan and 118.007 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 16.854 billion yuan, 20.446 billion yuan and 24.783 billion yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: China's demand uncertainty; Trade relationship disturbance risk; Risk of price rise of raw materials; The risk that AI promotion is not as expected; The risk that the incubation of innovative business is less than expected.
