\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Event: the company released the performance express. In 2021, the revenue was 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.15%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, of which Q4 revenue was 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.39%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%. The company’s performance is in line with market expectations.
Guokui is expected to benefit from the price increase, and the expansion of nut community stores has achieved remarkable results:
Guokui: it is estimated that Guokui’s revenue will account for about 70% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10% +, of which Q4’s revenue is estimated to increase by 20% year-on-year due to price increase and peak shifting during the Spring Festival. In November 2021, the company raised the price of Guokui by 8% – 18%. Referring to history, the sales growth of the company is basically stable at about 8%. Therefore, we speculate that the business revenue of Guokui is expected to increase by more than 16% in 2022. Nuts: it is estimated that the revenue of nuts will account for 20% + in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 30% +. Since Q4, the channel volume of community stores has been good, and the estimated revenue will increase by 50% year-on-year. Among them, the revenue growth of nuts in December exceeded the company’s target of 50%. According to the survey feedback, the coverage of nut channel is only 1 / 3 of that of red bag. The consumption scene of community stores is still an incremental market, and the growth sustainability will be maintained for at least 1-2 years.
In the short term, the company’s terminal demand is relatively stable. According to channel research, the delivery in January 2022 is 10 days less than that in the same period last year, and it is estimated that the revenue has declined year-on-year. However, the growth in December 2021 + January 2022 is still stable and the inventory is benign. Considering the low base from February to March last year, we are optimistic about the growth of 1q22.
The success of Qiaqia community store is the embodiment of the combined force of business overflow and high cooperation of dealers. After the outbreak, the first mock exam of the KA traffic was the street shops and community stores. Besides, the high matching ratio of dealers is also an important factor for the success of this mode: dealers are giving profits to the terminals, the retail price of daily nuts from 15 yuan to 79 yuan, and the 10 yuan of nuts milk is given, which reflects the high matching of the distributors of the 95 days. We are optimistic about the strong offline channel system in Qiaqia industry, which is expected to lead the industry to transform the gift box attribute of packaged nuts into vector vendor attribute, and escort the revenue target of 10 billion in three years.
The price increase of Guokui is smooth and will release profit elasticity in 2022. In 4q21, the net interest rate of the company’s deduction to the parent company was 14.8%, an increase of 0.5 PCT year-on-year, or due to the price increase. Considering the leading position of the company in the market of packaged melon seeds and the initial achievements in the channel expansion of nuts in the past 21 years, we believe that in the past 22 years, the company has sufficient space and room for the investment of total cost and the optimization of cost structure. Based on the controllable cost of price increase bonus superposition, we judge that the profit elasticity of the company in 2022 is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s Guokui brand strength, high voice in the industrial chain, smooth price increase, stable demand and strong impetus of nut channels are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. We raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 23 to 930 million yuan (2.6% higher than the previous time), 1.204 billion yuan (15.7% higher than the previous time) and 1.385 billion yuan (14.4% higher than the previous time), The current share price corresponds to 23 / 20 times of PE in 22-23 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the rising cost is higher than expected, the flow of Ka channel is lower than expected, and the demand of community stores shrinks
