\u3000\u3000 Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) (688037)
Key investment points
The local gluing and developing equipment is the leader, and the performance has entered a period of rapid growth
The company's main business covers the lithography process, gluing and developing equipment, monolithic wet equipment, etc. among them, gluing and developing equipment has successfully broken the foreign monopoly, has been widely used in the following advanced packaging, compound semiconductor, MEMS, LED chip manufacturing and other industries, and actively expands the front field. The downstream covers Shanghai Huali, Changjiang storage, TSMC, Huawei Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) and other mainstream customer groups have driven the company's performance into a period of rapid growth: ① revenue side: the CAGR of the company's revenue from 2016 to 2020 was 22.18%, and the revenue from 2021q1-3 was 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 158.20%, accelerating the expansion of revenue scale; ② Profit side: from 2016 to 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company CAGR reached 77.41%, much higher than the growth rate of the revenue side in the same period, the profit level was significantly improved, and the net interest rate reached 14.85% in 2020. By 2021q3, the company's orders on hand had reached 1.331 billion yuan, which will ensure the continuation of the rapid growth trend of short-term performance.
The prosperity of semiconductor equipment industry continues, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution of gluing and developing equipment
Gluing and developing equipment is the core equipment of the integrated circuit industry. Benefiting from the continued prosperity of the local semiconductor equipment industry, the market scale of gluing and developing equipment has increased steadily: ① previous: the global market scale in 2021 is about 3.812 billion US dollars. Against the background of the eastward shift of global wafer production capacity, semi estimates that 29 wafer factories will be built in the world from 2021 to 2022, There will be 8 Chinese mainland, which will spawn a large number of demand for glue developing equipment in the short term. ② Later: in 2021, the global market scale was about US $98 million, which was significantly lower than the previous one. However, with the rapid increase of the penetration rate of local advanced packaging, it still has great growth flexibility. The market of gluing and developing equipment is highly concentrated. Japan Tel is the dominant company, and the market share in China is as high as 91%. The company has made a breakthrough in industrialization, and the market share in China is about 4%. There is a wide space for domestic substitution.
The former product line continues to enrich and improve, and the growth space of the company continues to open
On the basis of consolidating the competitive advantages of existing products, the company actively enriches the product line of front gluing, developing and cleaning equipment, and the growth space continues to open. ① Gluing and developing equipment: 1) based on the small-size technology accumulated in the later field, the company actively expands new application fields such as OLED, power device and compound semiconductor; 2) The company continues to increase its research and development efforts, and has successively obtained orders from customers such as Shanghai Huali, Changjiang storage, Wuhan Xinxin and SMIC Shaoxing. 2021 company's fund-raising investment project focuses on the pre coating and development, and extends to advanced process products, which will completely open up the growth space of the company in the field of coating and development. ② Cleaning equipment: the company has developed the front spin scrubber single-chip physical cleaning machine, successfully realized the import substitution, and added the single-chip chemical cleaning machine, which is expected to become the second growth curve.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 to be 0.92, 1.70 and 2.61 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 147, 79 and 52 times respectively. As a local scarce supplier of gluing and developing equipment, the company actively expanded the front field and gradually introduced superimposed cleaning equipment. The growth of the company is more prominent, covering for the first time and giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the capital expenditure of downstream customers is less than expected, the progress of new product R & D and industrialization is less than expected, the market competition is intensified, the international trade friction is intensified, and the customer concentration is high
