\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) (002415)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Company performance: the company issued a performance express. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 81.3 billion yuan, yoy + 28.0%, and recorded a net profit attributable to the parent company of 16.78 billion yuan, yoy + 25.4%, yoy + 28.3% after deduction. The company's performance was in line with expectations. Quarterly, the company achieved revenue of 14 billion yuan, 19.91 billion yuan, 21.73 billion yuan and 25.67 billion yuan respectively in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 in 2021, with yoy + 44.9%, + 34.2%, + 22.4% and + 19.5% respectively, and recorded net profits of 2.17 billion yuan, 4.31 billion yuan, 4.48 billion yuan and 5.82 billion yuan respectively, with yoy + 44.9%, + 37.9%, + 17.5% and + 17.6% respectively.
The revenue side maintains rapid growth: the company's EBG business is estimated to grow steadily. The PBG business slows down in the second half of the year due to the impact of the macro environment. The growth of SMBG is estimated to slow down in the second half of the year due to the impact of channel inventory. The innovative business is estimated to maintain rapid growth. In the future, the company will split the fluorite network and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) business and list them respectively, At present, the application for the listing of fluorite network science and innovation board has been accepted, and the preliminary work of domestic listing has been started for Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) business. Overall, the company's revenue side maintained rapid growth. In 2021, the company's operating profit margin was 23.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points. We estimate that it is mainly due to the pressure on gross profit margin and the increase of R & D expenditure.
Equity incentive guarantees performance growth: the company issued the 2021 restricted stock plan in October 2021, which was unlocked in three times. The assessment criteria are that the return on net assets of the year before the unlocking time point is not less than 20% and not lower than the 75th percentile level of the benchmark company in the same period. The requirements of revenue end: the compound operating revenue growth rate of the year before the unlocking time point is not less than 15% compared with the year before the grant, And not lower than the 75th percentile growth rate of the benchmark company in the same period. We believe that although the company is currently facing various pressures, the formulation of a reasonable equity incentive plan will contribute to the steady growth of the company's performance and the stability of personnel.
Profit expectation: we expect the company to realize net profits of 20.26 billion yuan and 24.32 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023 respectively, yoy + 20.7% and + 20.0% respectively, EPS of 2.17 yuan and 2.60 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 22x and 20x respectively. The current valuation is reasonable, and we maintain the investment proposal of "buy".
