\u3000\u3000 China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) (601117)
Event overview
On February 18, 2022, the company issued a business briefing. In January 2022, the newly signed contract amount was 51.154 billion yuan, an increase of 82.98% year-on-year, of which the contract amount outside China was 43.534 billion yuan and 7.620 billion yuan, an increase of 81.04% and 94.92% year-on-year respectively.
2, according to the public information of E and the official account of the company, the Tianchen Qixiang adiponectin project entered the interlocking period in January 2022, and continued to promote equipment commissioning in the near future.
Analysis and judgment:
In 2022, orders made a good start, and the steady growth policy and industry concentration improved, which was conducive to the continuous growth of the main engineering industry.
According to the company’s announcement on January 16, 2022, the company’s total newly signed contract amount in 2021 was 269.769 billion yuan, including 220.116 billion yuan and 49.653 billion yuan of foreign contract amount respectively, and the cumulative revenue was 137.740 billion yuan. The newly signed orders and revenue increased by 7% and 24% respectively year-on-year. Under the background of the spread of the global epidemic and the impact of China’s dual carbon policy on investment last year, it is not easy to achieve the above achievements. The growth rate of newly signed orders in January 2022 was as high as 82.98%, achieving a good start, which fully shows the company’s leading strength in the global engineering field and excellent fine management level. We are optimistic that the company’s newly signed orders still have a lot of growth space, mainly considering: 1) the company’s diversification strategy is constantly promoted, and the proportion of H1 non chemical orders from 2019 to 2021 is 18%, 25.63% and 29.48% respectively, Among the 19 major contracts newly signed in January 2022, non chemical new energy, infrastructure and other fields accounted for 12; 2) The overseas market will develop. The company occupies a dominant position in the engineering market in most parts of the world. During the “13th five year plan” period, overseas orders account for more than 30% on average, but in 2021, affected by the epidemic, overseas orders account for only 18%. With the gradual decline of the epidemic assisted by specific drugs and vaccines, the proportion of overseas market is expected to return to the normal level. 3) Under the dual carbon economy, EPC projects such as chemical industry are increasingly coupled with new energy, electric power and other industries. Among the chemical design institutes with comprehensive class a qualification, except PetroChina and Sinopec system, they are all engineering companies of the company. The dual carbon policy is favorable, and the market share of the company continues to increase.
According to the company’s orders on hand at the end of 2020 and the data of orders and revenue in 2021, the company’s orders on hand by the end of 2021 were 392.9 billion yuan, with a revenue ratio of 2.85 compared with 2021, which is the guarantee for future performance growth. The company’s refined management promotes the continuous improvement of project quality and efficiency. It is expected that the improvement of future cash flow and profitability of engineering business is an inevitable trend. Based on the company’s orders in hand and growth space, we judge that the company’s engineering business income can maintain a compound growth rate of more than 15% in the medium term.
Continue to increase the layout of new material industry, and the industrial sector of the company is on the eve of performance explosion.
At present, the company’s three new material industrial projects are fully promoted, and it is expected to gradually enter the trial production stage in the near future. According to the information of the company’s interactive platform and official account, the first phase of Tianchen Qixiang adiponectin project is designed to produce 200 thousand tons of capacity and the maximum capacity can reach 300 thousand tons. In January 2022, it has entered the interlacing period of the intermediate and cross production trial production. It will continue to promote equipment commissioning in the near future. In the future, it will fully sprint items to achieve production. In addition, it plans “1+N” construction plan, and strive to build 100 billion nylon Industrial Park. In February 8, 2022, the 300 thousand party aerogel phase 50 thousand aerogel composite material for the first phase of Hua Lu new material was reviewed through trial production and will be put into operation at the end of February. Sinochem Donghua Tianye’s annual output of 500000 tons of PBAT and supporting project phase I annual output of 100000 tons of PBAT project have been mechanically completed by the end of 2021.
In the future, the company will be positioned as a comprehensive solution service provider in the field of industrial engineering and a supplier of high-end chemicals and advanced materials, and strive to build a world-class engineering enterprise with distinctive characteristics, professional leadership and strong core competitiveness. In addition to the above three industrial projects, the company continues to promote the implementation of new technologies and the transformation of achievements. On January 16, 2022, the board of directors of the company passed two proposals on investment in industrial projects. Among them, Tianchen is responsible for investing 300000 tons of hydrogen peroxide aqueous propylene oxide unit and supporting 2 * 450000 tons of hydrogen peroxide unit in Fujian Quangang 600000 tons of propylene oxide phase I, with an investment of 3.7 billion yuan. The hppo process technology of the project is Tianchen’s completely independent intellectual property right, which will replace the traditional chlorohydrin process; Wuhuan and war investment and employee follow-up investment platform set up a project company to invest in the phase I project of Yichang new materials innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) Park of China chemical industry, which requires a capital of 3.8 billion yuan. Relying on the phosphate rock resources and regional advantages of Yichang, Hubei, and supported by the company’s patents and proprietary technology, Give full play to the advantages of “phosphate rock phosphoric acid high purity phosphoric acid iron phosphate phosphorus based high-end chemicals” in the integration of the whole industrial chain and technological innovation ability. It is expected that the two projects will be put into operation in the second half of 2023, which will significantly increase the company’s profits and help the rapid implementation of the company’s new material industry strategy.
Investment advice
Maintaining the previous profit forecast, it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 131.8/157/178.6 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 44.2/74.5/9.72 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.72/1.22/1.59 yuan respectively (EPS will be reduced compared with the previous report due to the increase of fixed increase in share capital), and the corresponding PE will be 15 / 9 / 7 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk that the production schedule of adiponitrile project is lower than expected.
