\u3000\u3000 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (000002)
Conclusions and suggestions:
In January, the company achieved a sales area of 2.016 million square meters and a sales amount of 35.6 billion yuan, with yoy of - 47.2% and - 50.2% respectively. The average monthly sales price in January was 16904 yuan / m2, mom-7% and yoy-5.7%. The company's sales volume in January was weak, but with the positive bottom support signal in the market, the company's sales volume is expected to improve gradually.
At present, the real estate industry is in the stage of reshuffle, and this year is still the peak of debt maturity of real estate enterprises. We expect that enterprises with excessive leverage will be accelerated to clear, and the company's operation is stable, which is expected to benefit from the improvement of market concentration. In addition, the company's property "everything cloud" is planned to be spun off and listed in Hong Kong stocks, and its development is expected to accelerate; Warehousing, logistics and rental housing will also grow into important operation sectors of the company in the future, opening up new growth space for the company. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will reach 31.9 billion yuan, 32.8 billion yuan and 36.3 billion yuan respectively, yoy will be - 23%, + 2.8% and + 10.7% respectively, and EPS will be 2.75 yuan, 2.82 yuan and 3.13 yuan respectively. Calculated according to the current A-share price, the corresponding PE will be 7.4 times, 7.2 times and 6.5 times respectively, and pb0.5 times in 2022 8 times; The corresponding PE of H shares is 6.7 times, 6.5 times and 5.9 times, and pb0.5 times in 2022 8 times. At present, the company's valuation is low, and the sales data is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to "buy" ah shares.
The sales amount and area of the company decreased significantly in January, waiting for the bottom of the industry: the company achieved a sales area of 2.016 million square meters and a sales amount of 35.6 billion yuan in January, with yoy of - 47.2% and - 50.2% respectively. The average monthly sales price in January was 16904 yuan / m2, mom-7% and yoy-5.7%. As there are still hidden dangers of thunderstorms in real estate enterprises in the market and the overall weakening of house prices, consumers' confidence in house purchase is seriously frustrated, resulting in poor sales of the company in January. In January, the company added two new development projects, with a total floor area ratio of 300000 square meters, of which the company's equity area was 234000 square meters, and the corresponding equity land price was 3.34 billion yuan, with a large year-on-year decrease. In order to prevent the real estate market from falling too fast, recently, the housing loan policies in various places have begun to be loosened to varying degrees. For example, Heze, Chongqing, Ganzhou, Foshan and other cities have reduced the down payment ratio of the first house. The partial loosening of housing loan policy sends a positive signal to the market and helps to restore market confidence.
The company will issue 2 billion yuan of medium-term notes and operate steadily: on the 21st, the company disclosed the issuance document of the third phase of medium-term notes in 2022, with an issuance amount of 2 billion yuan, which will be issued from February 23 to 24, and the raised funds will be used for commercial housing construction. Previously, the company has issued the first and second phase medium-term notes with an amount of RMB 3 billion in January and February, with an issue interest rate of 2.95% and 2.98% respectively. After the successful issuance of the medium-term notes, the funds raised by the company this year will reach 8 billion yuan. As of 3q in 21 years, the net debt ratio of the company was 31.9%, and the company had no matured debt in Q1 in 22 years, so the debt situation was relatively healthy.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will reach 31.9 billion yuan, 32.8 billion yuan and 36.3 billion yuan respectively, yoy will be - 23%, + 2.8% and + 10.7% respectively, and EPS will be 2.75 yuan, 2.82 yuan and 3.13 yuan respectively. Calculated according to the current A-share price, the corresponding PE will be 7.4 times, 7.2 times and 6.5 times respectively, and pb0.5 times in 2022 8 times; The corresponding PE of H shares is 6.7 times, 6.5 times and 5.9 times, and pb0.5 times in 2022 8 times. At present, the company's valuation is low, and the sales data is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to "buy" ah shares.
