In the afternoon of February 22, the selling and buying prices of chaotic Tiancheng were 27 yuan and 12 yuan respectively. The buyer and the seller were deadlocked and there was no transaction.
The company is a futures company under Ge Weidong, a futures tycoon, and was listed on the new third board in March 2017.
Since its listing, chaos Tiancheng has no transactions on most trading days and no waves in the stock price trend. However, after entering 2022, the company’s stock price began to rise continuously, from 1.67 yuan on January 6 to 35.5 yuan on February 17.
In just over a month, the maximum increase in the range exceeded 20 times, and the total market value expanded from 1.353 billion yuan to 26.73 billion yuan.
However, the capital leveraging the incremental market value of 25 billion yuan only has a turnover of less than 40000 yuan.
From the beginning of 2022 to February 18, the total turnover of the company was only 39800 yuan, during which the turnover on several trading days was only 3000 yuan, and the turnover of 20000 yuan has been the recent “day volume”.
It should be pointed out that the market value of chaotic Tiancheng, which exceeds 25 billion yuan, has exceeded Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) and Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, second only to Yong’an futures, the industry leader shortly after listing.
After the company’s share price soared and attracted market attention, the company’s share price opened a “value return”.
accidental inevitable event
Generally speaking, the income and profit scale of futures companies with high rating will not be too poor, such as Yong’an futures and CITIC futures, which have always occupied the head position in recent years.
According to the classification and rating results in 2021, chaotic Tiancheng rated as “BBB” is probably in the middle reaches, with “AA” and “a” upward.
To some extent, this can show the position of futures companies in the industry.
“Futures companies are no better than other financial peers. The holding background of many futures companies is more complex, including securities companies, banks, spot enterprises, private placement and natural persons.” Zhengzhou, a futures company business manager said.
In his opinion, when chaos investment acquired Guangdong Hon Hai Futures (the predecessor of chaos Tiancheng) earlier, it may be from the perspective of serving the investment of the group. However, in the subsequent operation process, it needs to face problems such as weak profitability and regulatory pressure. It also needs to add investment in daily operations such as human costs. The “cost performance” of investing in futures companies is not high.
But it is this company that has far outperformed other companies in the same industry this year.
According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, from the beginning of the year to February 18, chaos Tiancheng increased by 1876%. In the same period, the Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) , Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) and Yong’an futures listed on A-Shares fell by 5%, 14.49% and 29.69% respectively. In the current period, only the LUZHENG futures listed on Hong Kong shares rose by 23.8%.
Before that, chaotic Tiancheng’s share price remained unchanged for more than a year, and its latest trading record needs to be traced back to September 9, 2019.
After the obvious change of stock price, chaotic Tiancheng, whose announcement frequency is very low, issued the announcement of abnormal fluctuation of stock trading twice this year.
The announcement said that after verification with the controlling shareholders of the company and other parties, “there are no media reports or market rumors that may or have had a great impact on the trading price of the company’s shares, and do not involve hot concept matters; there have been no significant changes in the company’s operation and internal and external business environment in the near future…”
In an interview with the media at the end of 2021, Huang Lu, general manager of chaos Tiancheng, pointed out that listing on the main board has always been its goal, and will continue to standardize the company’s operation in the future to prepare for listing on the main board.
However, what has recently attracted the attention of the industry is Hongye futures listed in Hong Kong stocks, which has resumed the review of A-share issuance.
If the rise of chaos Tiancheng is accidental, the sharp rise in market value caused by the turnover of less than 40000 yuan is inevitable.
The key is that the liquidity of the third board market needs to be improved. The current situation is that only a small amount of trading volume is enough to make the stock price fluctuate sharply. For example, on February 16, chaos Tiancheng’s total turnover was 4000 yuan, and the stock price rose 100% that day.
Yongan futures also had a similar situation during its listing on the third board, but as an industry leader, it has larger income and profit scale, higher market attention, and the absolute value of transaction volume and the continuity of stock price trend are significantly better than chaotic Tiancheng.
Under the current liquidity level of the third board market, similar events may still continue to occur.
paper wealth returns quickly
The biggest beneficiary of the rise of chaotic Tiancheng’s market value is Ge Weidong, the actual controller.
As of the release date of the latest periodic report, Shanghai chaos investment (Group) Co., Ltd. holds 87.72% of the shares of chaos Tiancheng, while GE Weidong holds 83.23% of the shares of chaos investment group. In addition, Ge Weidong personally also directly holds 1.85% of the shares of chaotic Tiancheng.
The market value of Ge Zhongcheng increased by more than 25.4 billion yuan, equivalent to at least 20.4 billion yuan for Weidong. You should know that GE Weidong’s personal wealth in 2021 is 22.5 billion yuan, and its wealth growth is very considerable.
However, the rise of chaotic Tiancheng’s share price is not sustainable and referential. In the end, it is just “wealth on paper”.
When the total market value of chaos Tiancheng reached 26.7 billion yuan, the total market value of Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) and Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) that preceded the A-share listing was only 7.87 billion yuan and 9.38 billion yuan. The market value of Hongye futures and LUZHENG futures listed on Hong Kong stocks is lower, only about HK $800 million respectively.
The core reason is that the profit model of futures companies is relatively single, the performance growth lacks imagination, and it is naturally difficult for the secondary market to give higher valuation premium.
Compared with the volume of the company, chaotic Tiancheng is obviously lower than the above peer companies.
Taking A-share peer companies as an example, in the first half of 2021, Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) revenue and net profit were 4.243 billion yuan and 86.48 million yuan respectively. In the same period, chaos Tiancheng’s revenue was more than 700 million yuan and its net profit loss was 7.17 million yuan.
The industry position and company scale are lower than those of peers, but the market value of the company is significantly ahead. It can be seen that Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) is either underestimated or chaotic Tiancheng is overestimated. As for the result of market choice, it is obviously the latter.
At the end of February 22, after the stalemate of the above-mentioned 27 yuan sales order and 12 yuan purchase order, it finally ended in the buyer’s victory. Although the transaction volume on that day was only 1200 yuan, it pulled chaotic Tiancheng’s share price back to 12 yuan from 33 yuan a few days ago.
It should be pointed out that only the head companies of futures companies have relatively stable business conditions, and their business scale and profitability can keep pace with the scale of China’s futures market.
In contrast, the operation of small and medium-sized futures companies is not ideal due to their industry status, service ability and resources, as well as the concentration of innovative business in head companies and the fierce competition of traditional brokerage business.
Even if the profit increases in individual years, it may also be due to the increase of trading volume of a certain futures variety due to severe market fluctuations at a specific time node, which is not sustainable.
Under the current situation of the above industries, the capital market generally recognizes futures companies. Only from the perspective of enterprise operation, only the head companies such as Yong’an futures have a relatively certain growth trend in recent years.
Insiders believe that the change of chaotic Tiancheng is essentially an accidental event caused by insufficient market liquidity, and the stock price will return quickly after it deviates from the fundamentals.
